{
 "runId": "6827826e-b962-4bd8-bdb3-b163712fd660",
 "provider": "jev-openrouter",
 "model": "~typesafe/jev-latest",
 "harnessOnly": false,
 "claims": 1000,
 "ceilingRate": 0.784,
 "targetAccuracy": 0.995,
 "auditSampleForProof": 765,
 "method": "5-fold cross-validation: every claim is scored by a workflow whose cut-offs and weights were fitted on the other four folds",
 "assumptionsNote": "Staff costs are benchmark mid-points from published industry figures, not AcmeCorp records; quick confirm, light check, audit and quarantine times have no benchmark and are the lab's assumptions.",
 "chapters": [
  {
   "n": 0,
   "short": "By hand",
   "title": "Today: every claim waits for a person",
   "status": "baseline",
   "workflowId": null,
   "idea": "An adjuster reads every claim, checks the policy by hand and decides. It is careful and slow: most of the waiting is a claim sitting in a queue.",
   "change": "The starting point. Every later chapter is compared with this one.",
   "flow": [
    {
     "label": "Claim arrives",
     "detail": "",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": null
    },
    {
     "label": "Waits in a queue",
     "detail": "Most of the 5 days before a decision (an assumed wait) is spent here.",
     "actor": "person",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": null
    },
    {
     "label": "Adjuster reads everything",
     "detail": "",
     "actor": "person",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": null
    },
    {
     "label": "Adjuster checks the policy by hand",
     "detail": "",
     "actor": "person",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": null
    },
    {
     "label": "Adjuster decides",
     "detail": "",
     "actor": "person",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": null
    },
    {
     "label": "Payment is set up",
     "detail": "",
     "actor": "person",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": null
    }
   ],
   "measures": {
    "handledRate": 0,
    "staffMinutesPerClaim": 122.04,
    "accuracy": null,
    "accuracyInterval": null,
    "handled": 0,
    "wrong": 0,
    "leakageUsd": 0,
    "netPer1000Usd": 0,
    "avgDaysToDecision": 5,
    "meetsTarget": false
   },
   "lanes": null,
   "gains": [],
   "risks": [
    "Mistakes made by people are not measured here, so there is no by-hand error figure to compare against.",
    "Waiting time and minutes per claim come from placeholder assumptions, not from company records."
   ],
   "pool": null,
   "test": null,
   "example": {
    "claimId": "C-0001",
    "headline": "Auto claim for $1,850",
    "excerpt": "Simple Auto Claim, minor fender-bender in parking lot. Another driver backed into my 2019 Honda Civic at low speed; bumper cover and tail light damaged, vehicle drivable, other …",
    "before": "Submitted",
    "after": "Waits about 5 days, then takes about 60 minutes of an adjuster's time",
    "why": "A small, well-documented claim gets the same queue as a complicated one."
   },
   "staffTasks": {
    "human_review": 830,
    "specialist": 34,
    "investigate": 108,
    "quarantine": 28,
    "quick_confirm": 0,
    "light_verify": 0,
    "audit": 0
   },
   "verdict": null,
   "bridge": null,
   "outcomes": null,
   "strip": null
  },
  {
   "n": 1,
   "short": "First design",
   "title": "The first design: act on one broad answer",
   "status": "engine",
   "workflowId": null,
   "idea": "The engine acts on its own only when the model confidently answers one broad question, \"what do you recommend?\", and every hand-set guard agrees.",
   "change": "The engine as shipped, hand-set 0.8 confidence threshold, every claim, no cross-validation. The model's answers now reach the engine. The engine, its rules and its hand-set thresholds are exactly as first specified.",
   "flow": [
    {
     "label": "Claim arrives",
     "detail": "Code validates and cleans the submission. No model has been consulted yet.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": null
    },
    {
     "label": "Jev answers narrow questions",
     "detail": "Fourteen typed questions about completeness, evidence and fraud. Jev advises; it never decides.",
     "actor": "jev",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": null
    },
    {
     "label": "Over $50,000?",
     "detail": "Fixed in code. No setting and no model answer can change it.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 80,
     "exitTo": "Human adjuster, analysis attached"
    },
    {
     "label": "Trying to manipulate the model?",
     "detail": "Code acts on Jev's answer about hidden instructions in the text.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 32,
     "exitTo": "Quarantine"
    },
    {
     "label": "Signs of fraud?",
     "detail": "One yes-or-no test on hand-set limits: fraud score, similar recent claim, contradictory story.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 145,
     "exitTo": "Full fraud investigation"
    },
    {
     "label": "Policy in force?",
     "detail": "One lookup in the policy system. A person confirms every denial.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 7,
     "exitTo": "Human adjuster"
    },
    {
     "label": "Is the model sure of its one broad answer?",
     "detail": "Automation hangs on a single question, \"what do you recommend?\", against a hand-set confidence. Nothing here is fitted.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": true,
     "exits": 702,
     "exitTo": "Human adjuster, analysis attached"
    },
    {
     "label": "Paid, or the customer is asked for what is missing",
     "detail": "In about a second. A payment guard re-checks the fixed rules, and every step is recorded.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": null
    }
   ],
   "measures": {
    "handledRate": 0.034,
    "staffMinutesPerClaim": 207.78,
    "accuracy": 0.7058823529411765,
    "accuracyInterval": [
     0.5383077411853625,
     0.8316554739006805
    ],
    "handled": 34,
    "wrong": 10,
    "leakageUsd": 0,
    "netPer1000Usd": -100030.12,
    "avgDaysToDecision": 4.830000472222222,
    "meetsTarget": false
   },
   "lanes": [
    {
     "id": "auto",
     "label": "No person",
     "claims": 34,
     "hoursPer1000": 0
    },
    {
     "id": "human_review",
     "label": "Full review",
     "claims": 545,
     "hoursPer1000": 608
    },
    {
     "id": "specialist",
     "label": "Specialist",
     "claims": 244,
     "hoursPer1000": 1518
    },
    {
     "id": "investigate",
     "label": "Fraud investigation",
     "claims": 145,
     "hoursPer1000": 1305
    },
    {
     "id": "quarantine",
     "label": "Quarantine",
     "claims": 32,
     "hoursPer1000": 32
    }
   ],
   "gains": [
    "Handled with no person: 0.0% to 3.4%.",
    "Average wait for a decision: 5.0 to 4.8 days."
   ],
   "risks": [
    "Staff time per claim: 122.0 minutes to 207.8 minutes.",
    "All 10 errors are valid claims wrongly asked for more information. Accuracy on handled claims is 70.6% (24 of 34), below the 99.5% bar, with $0 wrongly paid. That is why the first design was abandoned.",
    "Almost every claim still reaches a person, so the model adds cost without taking work away.",
    "net per 1,000 claims is $-100,030, not above $0"
   ],
   "pool": null,
   "test": null,
   "example": {
    "claimId": "C-0001",
    "headline": "Auto claim for $1,850",
    "excerpt": "Simple Auto Claim, minor fender-bender in parking lot. Another driver backed into my 2019 Honda Civic at low speed; bumper cover and tail light damaged, vehicle drivable, other …",
    "before": "By hand: waits about 5 days",
    "after": "Sent to a human adjuster, because the model was not confident enough in its one broad answer",
    "why": "Whatever happens to the simplest claim shows what this version can and cannot do."
   },
   "engineBaseline": {
    "method": "every claim's stored answers routed once through the engine's decide() under the pinned root thresholds; no fitted cut-off, no cross-validation",
    "answers": "stored-live-answers",
    "thresholdSet": {
     "label": "v1",
     "contentHash": "a997683b27d3c95183c0d78a3c6f03427d634269c7fc0b3e9381253b6be45821",
     "source": "threshold_sets",
     "autoConfidence": 0.8
    },
    "denominator": 1000,
    "replayed": 1000,
    "exclusions": [],
    "handled": 34,
    "wrong": 10,
    "wronglyPaidUsd": 0,
    "wrongRequests": 10,
    "reconciliation": {
     "source": "test_results row 109 (T1.auto_accuracy, provider jev-openrouter): \"70.59% (34 auto-processed)\"",
     "recordedHandled": 34,
     "recordedWrong": 10,
     "agrees": true,
     "explanation": [
      "The pipeline recorded 34 claims handled with no person and 10 wrong, over 1,000 claims. The replay of the stored answers gives 34 handled and 10 wrong, over 1,000 claims.",
      "They agree, claim by claim across the 1,000 recorded outcomes, which are the same claim ids the replay covers: same cohort, same provider, same thresholds, and the same wrong claims.",
      "The lab's W0 is the same answers under a different method: W0 sets the engine's own confidence test to zero and instead fits a cut-off on four folds that must be 99.8% accurate there, then scores the fifth. The engine's hand-set confidence of 0.8 was never fitted to be accurate, so it can let through claims that a fitted cut-off refuses. W0 is a development comparison; the engine figure is what the built system did."
     ]
    },
    "developmentComparison": {
     "workflowId": "W0",
     "label": "lab W0, a five-fold cross-validated cut-off over the same stored answers; a development comparison, not what the engine does",
     "handled": 5,
     "wrong": 1,
     "wronglyPaidUsd": 0
    }
   },
   "staffTasks": {
    "human_review": 533,
    "specialist": 237,
    "investigate": 164,
    "quarantine": 32,
    "quick_confirm": 0,
    "light_verify": 0,
    "audit": 0
   },
   "verdict": {
    "rule": "verdict/1",
    "pass": false,
    "accuracyMet": false,
    "netMet": false,
    "complete": true,
    "reasons": [
     {
      "code": "accuracy_below_bar",
      "text": "accuracy on handled claims is 70.59% (24 of 34), below 99.50%"
     },
     {
      "code": "net_not_positive",
      "text": "net per 1,000 claims is $-100,030, not above $0"
     }
    ]
   },
   "bridge": {
    "claims": 1000,
    "byHandPer1000Usd": 142380,
    "handlingPer1000Usd": 242410.12,
    "auditPer1000Usd": 0,
    "wronglyPaidPer1000Usd": 0,
    "netPer1000Usd": -100030.12
   },
   "outcomes": {
    "claims": 1000,
    "routing": {
     "automated": 34,
     "quickConfirm": 0,
     "lightVerify": 0,
     "humanReview": 545,
     "specialist": 244,
     "investigate": 145,
     "quarantine": 32
    },
    "automatedSplit": {
     "payments": 13,
     "infoRequests": 21,
     "wrongPayments": 0,
     "wrongInfoRequests": 10
    },
    "splitFrom": 1,
    "audits": null
   },
   "strip": {
    "flowChange": "Act on one broad model answer, with a hand-set 0.8 confidence.",
    "humanTask": "966 of 1,000 still reach a person, 145 of them as fraud investigations and 244 as specialist referrals; staff time 207.8 min per claim against 122.0 min by hand.",
    "costAndErrors": "10 of 34 automated decisions wrong; $0 wrongly paid; net −$100,030 per 1,000.",
    "recommendation": {
     "outcome": "abandoned",
     "label": "Abandoned: not accurate enough and loses money",
     "reasons": [
      "Accuracy 70.59% on 34 claims handled with no person is below 99.5%.",
      "Handling costs $242,410 per 1,000, more than the $142,380 by hand."
     ]
    },
    "evidence": {
     "status": "engine",
     "complete": true,
     "excludedClaims": 0
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "n": 2,
   "short": "Small answers",
   "title": "Combine the small answers instead",
   "status": "measured",
   "workflowId": "W1",
   "idea": "Ignore the broad recommendation. Code combines the model's narrow answers (complete? photos match? fraud risk?) and acts on the weakest one.",
   "change": "How answers are combined. No new questions, no new model calls.",
   "flow": [
    {
     "label": "Claim arrives",
     "detail": "Code validates and cleans the submission. No model has been consulted yet.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": null
    },
    {
     "label": "Jev answers narrow questions",
     "detail": "Fourteen typed questions about completeness, evidence and fraud. Jev advises; it never decides.",
     "actor": "jev",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": null
    },
    {
     "label": "Over $50,000?",
     "detail": "Fixed in code. No setting and no model answer can change it.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 80,
     "exitTo": "Human adjuster, analysis attached"
    },
    {
     "label": "Trying to manipulate the model?",
     "detail": "Code acts on Jev's answer about hidden instructions in the text.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 32,
     "exitTo": "Quarantine"
    },
    {
     "label": "Signs of fraud?",
     "detail": "One yes-or-no test on hand-set limits: fraud score, similar recent claim, contradictory story.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 145,
     "exitTo": "Full fraud investigation"
    },
    {
     "label": "Policy in force?",
     "detail": "One lookup in the policy system. A person confirms every denial.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 7,
     "exitTo": "Human adjuster"
    },
    {
     "label": "Is even the weakest small answer strong enough?",
     "detail": "Code combines the narrow answers and acts on the least certain one.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": true,
     "exits": 370,
     "exitTo": "Human adjuster, analysis attached"
    },
    {
     "label": "Paid, or the customer is asked for what is missing",
     "detail": "In about a second. A payment guard re-checks the fixed rules, and every step is recorded.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": null
    }
   ],
   "measures": {
    "handledRate": 0.366,
    "staffMinutesPerClaim": 187.86,
    "accuracy": 1,
    "accuracyInterval": [
     0.9896128504743652,
     1
    ],
    "handled": 366,
    "wrong": 0,
    "leakageUsd": 0,
    "netPer1000Usd": -76790.12,
    "avgDaysToDecision": 3.1700050833333333,
    "meetsTarget": false
   },
   "lanes": [
    {
     "id": "auto",
     "label": "No person",
     "claims": 366,
     "hoursPer1000": 0
    },
    {
     "id": "human_review",
     "label": "Full review",
     "claims": 213,
     "hoursPer1000": 276
    },
    {
     "id": "specialist",
     "label": "Specialist",
     "claims": 244,
     "hoursPer1000": 1518
    },
    {
     "id": "investigate",
     "label": "Fraud investigation",
     "claims": 145,
     "hoursPer1000": 1305
    },
    {
     "id": "quarantine",
     "label": "Quarantine",
     "claims": 32,
     "hoursPer1000": 32
    }
   ],
   "gains": [
    "Handled with no person: 3.4% to 36.6%. The two were measured differently: chapter 1 is the engine as shipped, run once over every claim; this chapter is the lab's cross-validated score over the same answers, so part of the jump is the method, not only the design.",
    "Staff time per claim: 207.8 minutes to 187.9 minutes.",
    "Average wait for a decision: 4.8 to 3.2 days."
   ],
   "risks": [
    "Accuracy measured at 100.00%, but on 366 handled claims the honest range is 99.0% to 100.0%, so 99.5% is met but not yet proven.",
    "One under-confident answer blocks a good claim; one over-confident answer could pass a bad one.",
    "net per 1,000 claims is $-76,790, not above $0"
   ],
   "pool": null,
   "test": null,
   "example": {
    "claimId": "C-0010",
    "headline": "Commercial claim for $18,605",
    "excerpt": "Commercial claim. Our company is reporting a customer slip-and-fall at our premises in Tempe, AZ on 2026-07-28. An incident report was completed by the shift manager and the aff…",
    "before": "Customer asked for the missing information at once, with no person (this was the wrong call)",
    "after": "Sent to a human adjuster, because it was not certain enough for the amount at stake",
    "why": "The previous version got this claim wrong. This one does not."
   },
   "engineBaseline": null,
   "staffTasks": {
    "human_review": 201,
    "specialist": 237,
    "investigate": 164,
    "quarantine": 32,
    "quick_confirm": 0,
    "light_verify": 0,
    "audit": 0
   },
   "verdict": {
    "rule": "verdict/1",
    "pass": false,
    "accuracyMet": true,
    "netMet": false,
    "complete": true,
    "reasons": [
     {
      "code": "net_not_positive",
      "text": "net per 1,000 claims is $-76,790, not above $0"
     }
    ]
   },
   "bridge": {
    "claims": 1000,
    "byHandPer1000Usd": 142380,
    "handlingPer1000Usd": 219170.12,
    "auditPer1000Usd": 0,
    "wronglyPaidPer1000Usd": 0,
    "netPer1000Usd": -76790.12
   },
   "outcomes": {
    "claims": 1000,
    "routing": {
     "automated": 366,
     "quickConfirm": 0,
     "lightVerify": 0,
     "humanReview": 213,
     "specialist": 244,
     "investigate": 145,
     "quarantine": 32
    },
    "automatedSplit": {
     "payments": 366,
     "infoRequests": 0,
     "wrongPayments": 0,
     "wrongInfoRequests": 0
    },
    "splitFrom": 2,
    "audits": null
   },
   "strip": {
    "flowChange": "Combine the narrow answers and act on the weakest one, instead of one broad answer.",
    "humanTask": "366 of 1,000 claims need no person (was 34); full reviews 545 → 213, but specialist referrals stay at 244; staff time 207.8 min → 187.9 min per claim.",
    "costAndErrors": "Wrongly paid $0 → $0 (0 wrong of 366 automated); net −$100,030 → −$76,790 per 1,000.",
    "recommendation": {
     "outcome": "improved_not_passing",
     "label": "Improved, does not pass: accurate but loses money",
     "reasons": [
      "Handling costs $219,170 per 1,000, more than the $142,380 by hand."
     ]
    },
    "evidence": {
     "status": "measured",
     "complete": true,
     "excludedClaims": 0
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "n": 3,
   "short": "Learned trust",
   "title": "Learn how much to trust each answer",
   "status": "measured",
   "workflowId": "W2",
   "idea": "The model's probabilities do not match how often it is right (mostly too cautious), and some answers matter more than others. A small statistical model, fitted on past claims, learns how to weigh them.",
   "change": "Replaces hand-set combination rules with 14 learned weights. Still code: no free text, and the hard rules run first.",
   "flow": [
    {
     "label": "Claim arrives",
     "detail": "Code validates and cleans the submission. No model has been consulted yet.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": null
    },
    {
     "label": "Jev answers narrow questions",
     "detail": "Fourteen typed questions about completeness, evidence and fraud. Jev advises; it never decides.",
     "actor": "jev",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": null
    },
    {
     "label": "Over $50,000?",
     "detail": "Fixed in code. No setting and no model answer can change it.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 80,
     "exitTo": "Human adjuster, analysis attached"
    },
    {
     "label": "Trying to manipulate the model?",
     "detail": "Code acts on Jev's answer about hidden instructions in the text.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 32,
     "exitTo": "Quarantine"
    },
    {
     "label": "Signs of fraud?",
     "detail": "One yes-or-no test on hand-set limits: fraud score, similar recent claim, contradictory story.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 145,
     "exitTo": "Full fraud investigation"
    },
    {
     "label": "Policy in force?",
     "detail": "One lookup in the policy system. A person confirms every denial.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 7,
     "exitTo": "Human adjuster"
    },
    {
     "label": "Does the learned score clear the bar?",
     "detail": "Fourteen learned weights turn the narrow answers into one score.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": true,
     "exits": 158,
     "exitTo": "Human adjuster, analysis attached"
    },
    {
     "label": "Paid, or the customer is asked for what is missing",
     "detail": "In about a second. A payment guard re-checks the fixed rules, and every step is recorded.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": null
    }
   ],
   "measures": {
    "handledRate": 0.578,
    "staffMinutesPerClaim": 113.76,
    "accuracy": 0.9982698961937716,
    "accuracyInterval": [
     0.9902656173616328,
     0.9996945367421647
    ],
    "handled": 578,
    "wrong": 1,
    "leakageUsd": 49101,
    "netPer1000Usd": -39441.119999999995,
    "avgDaysToDecision": 2.110008027777778,
    "meetsTarget": false
   },
   "lanes": [
    {
     "id": "auto",
     "label": "No person",
     "claims": 578,
     "hoursPer1000": 0
    },
    {
     "id": "human_review",
     "label": "Full review",
     "claims": 245,
     "hoursPer1000": 559
    },
    {
     "id": "investigate",
     "label": "Fraud investigation",
     "claims": 145,
     "hoursPer1000": 1305
    },
    {
     "id": "quarantine",
     "label": "Quarantine",
     "claims": 32,
     "hoursPer1000": 32
    }
   ],
   "gains": [
    "Handled with no person: 36.6% to 57.8%.",
    "Staff time per claim: 187.9 minutes to 113.8 minutes.",
    "Average wait for a decision: 3.2 to 2.1 days."
   ],
   "risks": [
    "Wrongly paid out: $0 to $49,101 (1 wrong decision in 578 handled).",
    "Accuracy measured at 99.83%, but on 578 handled claims the honest range is 99.0% to 100.0%, so 99.5% is met but not yet proven.",
    "Weights are learned from synthetic claims and would need re-fitting on real ones.",
    "net per 1,000 claims is $-39,441, not above $0"
   ],
   "pool": null,
   "test": null,
   "example": {
    "claimId": "C-0002",
    "headline": "Home claim for $18,400",
    "excerpt": "Home Water Damage, basement flooding from burst pipe. Supply line failed suddenly; plumber report confirms failed fitting. Flooring, drywall and furniture in the finished baseme…",
    "before": "Sent to a specialist, because it was flagged as needing a specialist",
    "after": "Paid in about a second, with no person",
    "why": "The previous version sent this claim to a person. This one handles it correctly."
   },
   "engineBaseline": null,
   "staffTasks": {
    "human_review": 193,
    "specialist": 34,
    "investigate": 163,
    "quarantine": 32,
    "quick_confirm": 0,
    "light_verify": 0,
    "audit": 0
   },
   "verdict": {
    "rule": "verdict/1",
    "pass": false,
    "accuracyMet": true,
    "netMet": false,
    "complete": true,
    "reasons": [
     {
      "code": "net_not_positive",
      "text": "net per 1,000 claims is $-39,441, not above $0"
     }
    ]
   },
   "bridge": {
    "claims": 1000,
    "byHandPer1000Usd": 142380,
    "handlingPer1000Usd": 132720.12,
    "auditPer1000Usd": 0,
    "wronglyPaidPer1000Usd": 49101,
    "netPer1000Usd": -39441.119999999995
   },
   "outcomes": {
    "claims": 1000,
    "routing": {
     "automated": 578,
     "quickConfirm": 0,
     "lightVerify": 0,
     "humanReview": 245,
     "specialist": 0,
     "investigate": 145,
     "quarantine": 32
    },
    "automatedSplit": {
     "payments": 550,
     "infoRequests": 28,
     "wrongPayments": 1,
     "wrongInfoRequests": 0
    },
    "splitFrom": 3,
    "audits": null
   },
   "strip": {
    "flowChange": "Learn how much to trust each answer: fitted weights turn the narrow answers into one score.",
    "humanTask": "578 of 1,000 claims need no person (was 366); full reviews 213 → 245, specialist referrals 244 → 0; staff time 187.9 min → 113.8 min per claim.",
    "costAndErrors": "Wrongly paid $0 → $49,101 (1 wrong of 578 automated); net −$76,790 → −$39,441 per 1,000.",
    "recommendation": {
     "outcome": "improved_not_passing",
     "label": "Improved, does not pass: accurate but loses money",
     "reasons": [
      "Saved $9,660 of staff cost per 1,000, but paid $49,101 wrongly."
     ]
    },
    "evidence": {
     "status": "measured",
     "complete": true,
     "excludedClaims": 0
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "n": 4,
   "short": "Money at stake",
   "title": "Be stricter when more money is at stake",
   "status": "measured",
   "workflowId": "W3",
   "idea": "Same learned weights as W2, but a large claim needs much more certainty than a small one before it is paid without a person.",
   "change": "The confidence needed now rises with the claim amount. No new model calls.",
   "flow": [
    {
     "label": "Claim arrives",
     "detail": "Code validates and cleans the submission. No model has been consulted yet.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": null
    },
    {
     "label": "Jev answers narrow questions",
     "detail": "Fourteen typed questions about completeness, evidence and fraud. Jev advises; it never decides.",
     "actor": "jev",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": null
    },
    {
     "label": "Over $50,000?",
     "detail": "Fixed in code. No setting and no model answer can change it.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 80,
     "exitTo": "Human adjuster, analysis attached"
    },
    {
     "label": "Trying to manipulate the model?",
     "detail": "Code acts on Jev's answer about hidden instructions in the text.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 32,
     "exitTo": "Quarantine"
    },
    {
     "label": "Signs of fraud?",
     "detail": "One yes-or-no test on hand-set limits: fraud score, similar recent claim, contradictory story.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 145,
     "exitTo": "Full fraud investigation"
    },
    {
     "label": "Policy in force?",
     "detail": "One lookup in the policy system. A person confirms every denial.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 7,
     "exitTo": "Human adjuster"
    },
    {
     "label": "Certain enough for this much money?",
     "detail": "The chance of being wrong, times the amount, must stay small.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": true,
     "exits": 110,
     "exitTo": "Human adjuster, analysis attached"
    },
    {
     "label": "Paid, or the customer is asked for what is missing",
     "detail": "In about a second. A payment guard re-checks the fixed rules, and every step is recorded.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": null
    }
   ],
   "measures": {
    "handledRate": 0.626,
    "staffMinutesPerClaim": 110.88,
    "accuracy": 0.9968051118210862,
    "accuracyInterval": [
     0.9884264584621888,
     0.9991234270963387
    ],
    "handled": 626,
    "wrong": 2,
    "leakageUsd": 4211,
    "netPer1000Usd": 8808.880000000005,
    "avgDaysToDecision": 1.8700086944444445,
    "meetsTarget": true
   },
   "lanes": [
    {
     "id": "auto",
     "label": "No person",
     "claims": 626,
     "hoursPer1000": 0
    },
    {
     "id": "human_review",
     "label": "Full review",
     "claims": 197,
     "hoursPer1000": 511
    },
    {
     "id": "investigate",
     "label": "Fraud investigation",
     "claims": 145,
     "hoursPer1000": 1305
    },
    {
     "id": "quarantine",
     "label": "Quarantine",
     "claims": 32,
     "hoursPer1000": 32
    }
   ],
   "gains": [
    "Handled with no person: 57.8% to 62.6%.",
    "Staff time per claim: 113.8 minutes to 110.9 minutes.",
    "Average wait for a decision: 2.1 to 1.9 days.",
    "Wrongly paid out: $49,101 to $4,211 (2 wrong decisions in 626 handled)."
   ],
   "risks": [
    "Accuracy measured at 99.68%, but on 626 handled claims the honest range is 98.8% to 99.9%, so 99.5% is met but not yet proven.",
    "Large honest claims wait for a person more often. That is the intended trade."
   ],
   "pool": null,
   "test": null,
   "example": {
    "claimId": "C-0476",
    "headline": "Life claim for $49,101",
    "excerpt": "Life insurance claim. I am the named beneficiary on the final expense policy of my late spouse, who passed away from natural causes in Portland, ME on 2026-01-12. I have attache…",
    "before": "Paid in about a second, with no person (this was the wrong call)",
    "after": "Sent to a human adjuster, because it was not certain enough for the amount at stake",
    "why": "The previous version got this claim wrong. This one does not."
   },
   "engineBaseline": null,
   "staffTasks": {
    "human_review": 145,
    "specialist": 34,
    "investigate": 163,
    "quarantine": 32,
    "quick_confirm": 0,
    "light_verify": 0,
    "audit": 0
   },
   "verdict": {
    "rule": "verdict/1",
    "pass": true,
    "accuracyMet": true,
    "netMet": true,
    "complete": true,
    "reasons": []
   },
   "bridge": {
    "claims": 1000,
    "byHandPer1000Usd": 142380,
    "handlingPer1000Usd": 129360.12,
    "auditPer1000Usd": 0,
    "wronglyPaidPer1000Usd": 4211,
    "netPer1000Usd": 8808.880000000005
   },
   "outcomes": {
    "claims": 1000,
    "routing": {
     "automated": 626,
     "quickConfirm": 0,
     "lightVerify": 0,
     "humanReview": 197,
     "specialist": 0,
     "investigate": 145,
     "quarantine": 32
    },
    "automatedSplit": {
     "payments": 568,
     "infoRequests": 58,
     "wrongPayments": 1,
     "wrongInfoRequests": 1
    },
    "splitFrom": 4,
    "audits": null
   },
   "strip": {
    "flowChange": "Be stricter when more money is at stake: the chance of being wrong, times the amount, must stay small.",
    "humanTask": "626 of 1,000 claims need no person (was 578); full reviews 245 → 197; staff time 113.8 min → 110.9 min per claim.",
    "costAndErrors": "Wrongly paid $49,101 → $4,211 (2 wrong of 626 automated); net −$39,441 → +$8,809 per 1,000.",
    "recommendation": {
     "outcome": "candidate",
     "label": "Candidate",
     "reasons": [
      "Net +$8,809 per 1,000: $142,380 by hand − $129,360 handling − $4,211 wrongly paid."
     ]
    },
    "evidence": {
     "status": "measured",
     "complete": true,
     "excludedClaims": 0
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "n": 5,
   "short": "Quick confirm",
   "title": "A quick-confirm lane for claims that are nearly certain",
   "status": "replayed",
   "workflowId": null,
   "idea": "A claim the decision model has fully prepared, but is not quite sure enough to pay, does not need a full review. It needs one look at the one doubtful item.",
   "change": "Adds a lane between \"no person\" and \"full review\". It does not raise the no-person rate; it cuts the minutes spent on claims that still reach someone.",
   "flow": [
    {
     "label": "Claim arrives",
     "detail": "Code validates and cleans the submission. No model has been consulted yet.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": null
    },
    {
     "label": "Jev answers narrow questions",
     "detail": "Fourteen typed questions about completeness, evidence and fraud. Jev advises; it never decides.",
     "actor": "jev",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": null
    },
    {
     "label": "Over $50,000?",
     "detail": "Fixed in code. No setting and no model answer can change it.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 80,
     "exitTo": "Human adjuster, analysis attached"
    },
    {
     "label": "Trying to manipulate the model?",
     "detail": "Code acts on Jev's answer about hidden instructions in the text.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 32,
     "exitTo": "Quarantine"
    },
    {
     "label": "Signs of fraud?",
     "detail": "One yes-or-no test on hand-set limits: fraud score, similar recent claim, contradictory story.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 145,
     "exitTo": "Full fraud investigation"
    },
    {
     "label": "Policy in force?",
     "detail": "One lookup in the policy system. A person confirms every denial.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 7,
     "exitTo": "Human adjuster"
    },
    {
     "label": "Certain enough for this much money?",
     "detail": "The chance of being wrong, times the amount, must stay small.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 110,
     "exitTo": "Quick confirm"
    },
    {
     "label": "Quick confirm",
     "detail": "A person sees the prepared file and the one doubtful item, then confirms or overrides. Used for near-certain claims, every denial, and clean claims over $50,000. 168 claims initially entered this lane; 60 of these escalated to full work in the replay, not additional claims.",
     "actor": "person",
     "changed": true,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": null
    },
    {
     "label": "Paid, or the customer is asked for what is missing",
     "detail": "In about a second. A payment guard re-checks the fixed rules, and every step is recorded.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": null
    }
   ],
   "measures": {
    "handledRate": 0.626,
    "staffMinutesPerClaim": 102.204,
    "accuracy": 0.9968051118210862,
    "accuracyInterval": [
     0.9884264584621888,
     0.9991234270963387
    ],
    "handled": 626,
    "wrong": 2,
    "leakageUsd": 4211,
    "netPer1000Usd": 18930.880000000005,
    "avgDaysToDecision": 1.4380086944444381,
    "meetsTarget": true,
    "cutoffMethod": "in-sample",
    "limitUsd": null
   },
   "lanes": [
    {
     "id": "auto",
     "label": "No person",
     "claims": 626,
     "hoursPer1000": 0
    },
    {
     "id": "quick_confirm",
     "label": "Quick confirm",
     "claims": 168,
     "hoursPer1000": 337.4
    },
    {
     "id": "human_review",
     "label": "Full review",
     "claims": 29,
     "hoursPer1000": 29
    },
    {
     "id": "investigate",
     "label": "Fraud investigation",
     "claims": 145,
     "hoursPer1000": 1305
    },
    {
     "id": "quarantine",
     "label": "Quarantine",
     "claims": 32,
     "hoursPer1000": 32
    }
   ],
   "gains": [
    "Staff time per claim: 110.9 minutes to 102.2 minutes.",
    "Average wait for a decision: 1.9 to 1.4 days.",
    "The no-person rate, accuracy and wrongly-paid figures are unchanged by design: this chapter only changes what happens to claims that still reach someone."
   ],
   "risks": [
    "60 of 168 quick confirms were overridden because the prepared suggestion was not right for the claim. Each one pays for the quick look and the full work.",
    "A quick confirm is assumed to take 3 minutes and wait 1 day. Both are placeholders, not measurements.",
    "The replay assumes the person always catches a wrong suggestion. People may approve by habit when the file looks finished."
   ],
   "pool": {
    "label": "Claims sent to a full review with the analysis already done",
    "claims": 190,
    "note": "Stopped only by the certainty step or by the $50,000 rule."
   },
   "test": null,
   "example": {
    "claimId": "C-0626",
    "headline": "Auto claim for $844",
    "excerpt": "Auto glass claim. A rock thrown up by a truck on the highway near Fresno, CA cracked the windshield of my 2020 Kia Sorento on 2026-06-05. The crack runs across the driver's line…",
    "before": "Sent to a human adjuster, because it was not certain enough for the amount at stake",
    "after": "A person confirms the prepared file in about 3 minutes (assumed)",
    "why": "This claim could have been handled automatically and missed the bar narrowly."
   },
   "staffTasks": {
    "human_review": 46,
    "specialist": 25,
    "investigate": 163,
    "quarantine": 32,
    "quick_confirm": 168,
    "light_verify": 0,
    "audit": 0
   },
   "verdict": {
    "rule": "verdict/1",
    "pass": true,
    "accuracyMet": true,
    "netMet": true,
    "complete": true,
    "reasons": []
   },
   "bridge": {
    "claims": 1000,
    "byHandPer1000Usd": 142380,
    "handlingPer1000Usd": 119238.12,
    "auditPer1000Usd": 0,
    "wronglyPaidPer1000Usd": 4211,
    "netPer1000Usd": 18930.880000000005
   },
   "outcomes": {
    "claims": 1000,
    "routing": {
     "automated": 626,
     "quickConfirm": 168,
     "lightVerify": 0,
     "humanReview": 29,
     "specialist": 0,
     "investigate": 145,
     "quarantine": 32
    },
    "humanLanes": {
     "quickEscalated": 60,
     "lightEscalated": 0
    },
    "automatedSplit": {
     "payments": 568,
     "infoRequests": 58,
     "wrongPayments": 1,
     "wrongInfoRequests": 1
    },
    "splitFrom": 4,
    "audits": null
   },
   "strip": {
    "flowChange": "Near-misses, and clean claims over $50,000, go to a quick-confirm lane instead of a full review.",
    "humanTask": "168 claims initially enter quick confirm (3 min each, assumed); 60 of these escalate to full work, not additional claims. Staff time 110.9 min → 102.2 min per claim.",
    "costAndErrors": "No-person rate and errors unchanged by design; net +$8,809 → +$18,931 per 1,000.",
    "recommendation": {
     "outcome": "kept",
     "label": "Kept",
     "reasons": [
      "Net +$18,931 per 1,000: $142,380 by hand − $119,238 handling − $4,211 wrongly paid."
     ]
    },
    "evidence": {
     "status": "replayed",
     "complete": true,
     "excludedClaims": 0
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "n": 6,
   "short": "Graded fraud",
   "title": "Grade the fraud response instead of yes or no",
   "status": "replayed",
   "workflowId": null,
   "idea": "Today one yes-or-no test sends a claim to a full investigation. Weak signals deserve a light check first, with the evidence file assembled by the decision model either way.",
   "change": "Replaces the single fraud exit with two levels, and hands investigators a prepared file.",
   "flow": [
    {
     "label": "Claim arrives",
     "detail": "Code validates and cleans the submission. No model has been consulted yet.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": null
    },
    {
     "label": "Jev answers narrow questions",
     "detail": "Fourteen typed questions about completeness, evidence and fraud. Jev advises; it never decides.",
     "actor": "jev",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": null
    },
    {
     "label": "Over $50,000?",
     "detail": "Fixed in code. No setting and no model answer can change it.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 80,
     "exitTo": "Human adjuster, analysis attached"
    },
    {
     "label": "Trying to manipulate the model?",
     "detail": "Code acts on Jev's answer about hidden instructions in the text.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 32,
     "exitTo": "Quarantine"
    },
    {
     "label": "How strong are the fraud signs?",
     "detail": "Graded, not yes-or-no. Weak signs get a light check first; only strong signs, or a failed check, go to full investigation. 78 claims met a light check first; 23 of them went on to a full investigation.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": true,
     "exits": 145,
     "exitTo": "Light verification, then investigation if it fails"
    },
    {
     "label": "Policy in force?",
     "detail": "One lookup in the policy system. A person confirms every denial.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 7,
     "exitTo": "Human adjuster"
    },
    {
     "label": "Certain enough for this much money?",
     "detail": "The chance of being wrong, times the amount, must stay small.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 110,
     "exitTo": "Quick confirm"
    },
    {
     "label": "Quick confirm",
     "detail": "A person sees the prepared file and the one doubtful item, then confirms or overrides. Used for near-certain claims, every denial, and clean claims over $50,000.",
     "actor": "person",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": null
    },
    {
     "label": "Paid, or the customer is asked for what is missing",
     "detail": "In about a second. A payment guard re-checks the fixed rules, and every step is recorded.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": null
    }
   ],
   "measures": {
    "handledRate": 0.626,
    "staffMinutesPerClaim": 74.064,
    "accuracy": 0.9968051118210862,
    "accuracyInterval": [
     0.9884264584621888,
     0.9991234270963387
    ],
    "handled": 626,
    "wrong": 2,
    "leakageUsd": 4211,
    "netPer1000Usd": 51760.880000000005,
    "avgDaysToDecision": 1.4380086944444381,
    "meetsTarget": true,
    "cutoffMethod": "in-sample",
    "limitUsd": null
   },
   "lanes": [
    {
     "id": "auto",
     "label": "No person",
     "claims": 626,
     "hoursPer1000": 0
    },
    {
     "id": "quick_confirm",
     "label": "Quick confirm",
     "claims": 168,
     "hoursPer1000": 337.4
    },
    {
     "id": "light_verify",
     "label": "Light fraud check",
     "claims": 78,
     "hoursPer1000": 233
    },
    {
     "id": "human_review",
     "label": "Full review",
     "claims": 29,
     "hoursPer1000": 29
    },
    {
     "id": "investigate",
     "label": "Fraud investigation",
     "claims": 67,
     "hoursPer1000": 603
    },
    {
     "id": "quarantine",
     "label": "Quarantine",
     "claims": 32,
     "hoursPer1000": 32
    }
   ],
   "gains": [
    "Staff time per claim: 102.2 minutes to 74.1 minutes.",
    "The no-person rate, accuracy and wrongly-paid figures are unchanged by design: this chapter only changes what happens to claims that still reach someone."
   ],
   "risks": [
    "30 claims where an investigation was warranted met the light check first. The replay assumes that check catches them; if it does not, this is where fraud gets through.",
    "A light check is assumed to take 20 minutes. It is a placeholder, not a measurement.",
    "No saving is claimed for handing investigators a prepared file; that would need real timings."
   ],
   "pool": {
    "label": "Fraud referrals that did not need an investigation",
    "claims": 48,
    "note": "Out of 145 claims the fraud step sent to investigation."
   },
   "test": null,
   "example": {
    "claimId": "C-0005",
    "headline": "Home claim for $7,200",
    "excerpt": "Standard Home Claim, storm damage to roof shingles. High winds during a documented thunderstorm removed shingles from the rear slope; minor attic leak tarped. Roofer estimate $7…",
    "before": "Sent to fraud investigation, because fraud indicators were above the limit",
    "after": "A light verification clears it and it rejoins the normal flow",
    "why": "An honest claim that tripped a hand-set fraud limit."
   },
   "staffTasks": {
    "human_review": 46,
    "specialist": 25,
    "investigate": 108,
    "quarantine": 32,
    "quick_confirm": 168,
    "light_verify": 78,
    "audit": 0
   },
   "verdict": {
    "rule": "verdict/1",
    "pass": true,
    "accuracyMet": true,
    "netMet": true,
    "complete": true,
    "reasons": []
   },
   "bridge": {
    "claims": 1000,
    "byHandPer1000Usd": 142380,
    "handlingPer1000Usd": 86408.12,
    "auditPer1000Usd": 0,
    "wronglyPaidPer1000Usd": 4211,
    "netPer1000Usd": 51760.880000000005
   },
   "outcomes": {
    "claims": 1000,
    "routing": {
     "automated": 626,
     "quickConfirm": 168,
     "lightVerify": 78,
     "humanReview": 29,
     "specialist": 0,
     "investigate": 67,
     "quarantine": 32
    },
    "humanLanes": {
     "quickEscalated": 60,
     "lightEscalated": 23
    },
    "automatedSplit": {
     "payments": 568,
     "infoRequests": 58,
     "wrongPayments": 1,
     "wrongInfoRequests": 1
    },
    "splitFrom": 4,
    "audits": null
   },
   "strip": {
    "flowChange": "Grade the fraud response: weak signs get a light check first, instead of a yes-or-no referral to investigation.",
    "humanTask": "78 fraud referrals get a light check first (20 min, assumed); 23 of these escalate to investigation, not additional claims. Direct investigations 145 → 67; staff time 102.2 min → 74.1 min per claim.",
    "costAndErrors": "No-person rate and errors unchanged by design; net +$18,931 → +$51,761 per 1,000.",
    "recommendation": {
     "outcome": "kept",
     "label": "Kept",
     "reasons": [
      "Net +$51,761 per 1,000: $142,380 by hand − $86,408 handling − $4,211 wrongly paid."
     ]
    },
    "evidence": {
     "status": "replayed",
     "complete": true,
     "excludedClaims": 0
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "n": 7,
   "short": "Second opinion",
   "title": "A second opinion for the near-misses",
   "status": "tested",
   "workflowId": null,
   "idea": "Jev is fast and cheap but cautious. For the few claims just under the bar, a language model reads the claim and seven of Jev's findings; agreement, above a certainty floor fitted on other claims, lifts the claim over.",
   "change": "Adds one model call, for near-misses only, so the cost stays small.",
   "flow": [
    {
     "label": "Claim arrives",
     "detail": "Code validates and cleans the submission. No model has been consulted yet.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": null
    },
    {
     "label": "Jev answers narrow questions",
     "detail": "Fourteen typed questions about completeness, evidence and fraud. Jev advises; it never decides.",
     "actor": "jev",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": null
    },
    {
     "label": "Over $50,000?",
     "detail": "Fixed in code. No setting and no model answer can change it.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 80,
     "exitTo": "Human adjuster, analysis attached"
    },
    {
     "label": "Trying to manipulate the model?",
     "detail": "Code acts on Jev's answer about hidden instructions in the text.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 32,
     "exitTo": "Quarantine"
    },
    {
     "label": "How strong are the fraud signs?",
     "detail": "Graded, not yes-or-no. Weak signs get a light check first; only strong signs, or a failed check, go to full investigation.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 145,
     "exitTo": "Light verification, then investigation if it fails"
    },
    {
     "label": "Policy in force?",
     "detail": "One lookup in the policy system. A person confirms every denial.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 7,
     "exitTo": "Human adjuster"
    },
    {
     "label": "Certain enough for this much money?",
     "detail": "The chance of being wrong, times the amount, must stay small.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 110,
     "exitTo": "Quick confirm"
    },
    {
     "label": "Just under the bar? Get a second opinion",
     "detail": "A small language model, shown the claim and seven of Jev's findings, reviews only the near-misses. Agreement lifts a claim over the bar only above a certainty floor fitted on other claims; anything else goes to a person. The second model agreed on 4 claims; 1 of those was wrong.",
     "actor": "llm",
     "changed": true,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": "Quick confirm"
    },
    {
     "label": "Quick confirm",
     "detail": "A person sees the prepared file and the one doubtful item, then confirms or overrides. Used for near-certain claims, every denial, and clean claims over $50,000.",
     "actor": "person",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": null
    },
    {
     "label": "Paid, or the customer is asked for what is missing",
     "detail": "In about a second. A payment guard re-checks the fixed rules, and every step is recorded.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": null
    }
   ],
   "measures": {
    "handledRate": 0.63,
    "staffMinutesPerClaim": 73.992,
    "accuracy": 0.9952380952380953,
    "accuracyInterval": [
     0.9860938340572217,
     0.9983792582737329
    ],
    "handled": 630,
    "wrong": 3,
    "leakageUsd": 4211,
    "netPer1000Usd": 51844.790379,
    "avgDaysToDecision": 1.430008749999994,
    "meetsTarget": true,
    "cutoffMethod": "in-sample",
    "limitUsd": null
   },
   "lanes": [
    {
     "id": "auto",
     "label": "No person",
     "claims": 630,
     "hoursPer1000": 0
    },
    {
     "id": "quick_confirm",
     "label": "Quick confirm",
     "claims": 164,
     "hoursPer1000": 336.2
    },
    {
     "id": "light_verify",
     "label": "Light fraud check",
     "claims": 78,
     "hoursPer1000": 233
    },
    {
     "id": "human_review",
     "label": "Full review",
     "claims": 29,
     "hoursPer1000": 29
    },
    {
     "id": "investigate",
     "label": "Fraud investigation",
     "claims": 67,
     "hoursPer1000": 603
    },
    {
     "id": "quarantine",
     "label": "Quarantine",
     "claims": 32,
     "hoursPer1000": 32
    }
   ],
   "gains": [
    "Handled with no person: 62.6% to 63.0%.",
    "Staff time per claim: 74.1 minutes to 74.0 minutes.",
    "Tested with real calls to a second model (anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5) on 110 claims, for $0.09 in total."
   ],
   "risks": [
    "Accuracy measured at 99.52%, but on 630 handled claims the honest range is 98.6% to 99.8%, so 99.5% is met but not yet proven.",
    "Agreement alone is unsafe. With no certainty floor, the second model agreed on 13 claims and 6 were wrong, paying out $148,084. The floor, fitted on other claims, is what keeps those with a person.",
    "1 agreed claim was wrong, paying out $0: two models can be wrong together. Agreement is evidence, not proof.",
    "Only 4 claims were added, so this chapter's own error rate is known very loosely.",
    "Adds a second supplier, and sends claim text to it, for every claim it touches."
   ],
   "pool": {
    "label": "Claims that fell short of the certainty bar",
    "claims": 110,
    "note": "For 69 of them an automatic outcome would have been right."
   },
   "test": null,
   "example": {
    "claimId": "C-0018",
    "headline": "Home claim for $8,725",
    "excerpt": "Home claim. Our house in Fresno, CA was burgled on 2026-05-14 while we were away. The back door was forced. Stolen: two bicycles and power tools. We filed a police report the sa…",
    "before": "Sent to a human adjuster, because it was not certain enough for the amount at stake",
    "after": "A second model reads the claim and Jev's findings; if both agree and the claim clears the fitted floor, it is handled",
    "why": "Safe to handle, but Jev alone was not sure enough.",
    "exchange": null
   },
   "staffTasks": {
    "human_review": 45,
    "specialist": 25,
    "investigate": 108,
    "quarantine": 32,
    "quick_confirm": 164,
    "light_verify": 78,
    "audit": 0
   },
   "verdict": {
    "rule": "verdict/1",
    "pass": true,
    "accuracyMet": true,
    "netMet": true,
    "complete": true,
    "reasons": []
   },
   "bridge": {
    "claims": 1000,
    "byHandPer1000Usd": 142380,
    "handlingPer1000Usd": 86324.209621,
    "auditPer1000Usd": 0,
    "wronglyPaidPer1000Usd": 4211,
    "netPer1000Usd": 51844.790379
   },
   "outcomes": {
    "claims": 1000,
    "routing": {
     "automated": 630,
     "quickConfirm": 164,
     "lightVerify": 78,
     "humanReview": 29,
     "specialist": 0,
     "investigate": 67,
     "quarantine": 32
    },
    "humanLanes": {
     "quickEscalated": 59,
     "lightEscalated": 23
    },
    "automatedSplit": null,
    "splitFrom": null,
    "audits": null
   },
   "strip": {
    "flowChange": "A second model reviews the near-misses; its agreement counts only above a certainty floor fitted on other claims.",
    "humanTask": "4 more claims need no person (630 in all); staff time 74.1 min → 74.0 min per claim.",
    "costAndErrors": "1 more wrong, $0 more wrongly paid; net +$51,761 → +$51,845 per 1,000; real calls on 110 claims for $0.09.",
    "recommendation": {
     "outcome": "kept",
     "label": "Kept",
     "reasons": [
      "Net +$51,845 per 1,000: $142,380 by hand − $86,324 handling − $4,211 wrongly paid."
     ]
    },
    "evidence": {
     "status": "tested",
     "complete": true,
     "excludedClaims": 0
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "n": 8,
   "short": "Ask customer",
   "title": "Ask the customer one targeted question",
   "status": "simulated",
   "workflowId": null,
   "idea": "Missing information is the largest fixable reason a claim cannot be decided. One specific question, answered by the customer, can turn an unclear claim into a clear one.",
   "change": "The only proposal that can raise the ceiling on the no-person rate, because it changes what is known about the claim.",
   "flow": [
    {
     "label": "Claim arrives",
     "detail": "Code validates and cleans the submission. No model has been consulted yet.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": null
    },
    {
     "label": "Jev answers narrow questions",
     "detail": "Fourteen typed questions about completeness, evidence and fraud. Jev advises; it never decides.",
     "actor": "jev",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": null
    },
    {
     "label": "Over $50,000?",
     "detail": "Fixed in code. No setting and no model answer can change it.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 80,
     "exitTo": "Human adjuster, analysis attached"
    },
    {
     "label": "Trying to manipulate the model?",
     "detail": "Code acts on Jev's answer about hidden instructions in the text.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 32,
     "exitTo": "Quarantine"
    },
    {
     "label": "How strong are the fraud signs?",
     "detail": "Graded, not yes-or-no. Weak signs get a light check first; only strong signs, or a failed check, go to full investigation.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 145,
     "exitTo": "Light verification, then investigation if it fails"
    },
    {
     "label": "Policy in force?",
     "detail": "One lookup in the policy system. A person confirms every denial.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 7,
     "exitTo": "Human adjuster"
    },
    {
     "label": "Certain enough for this much money?",
     "detail": "The chance of being wrong, times the amount, must stay small.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 110,
     "exitTo": "Quick confirm"
    },
    {
     "label": "Just under the bar? Get a second opinion",
     "detail": "A small language model, shown the claim and seven of Jev's findings, reviews only the near-misses. Agreement lifts a claim over the bar only above a certainty floor fitted on other claims; anything else goes to a person.",
     "actor": "llm",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": "Quick confirm"
    },
    {
     "label": "Still under the bar? Ask the customer",
     "detail": "One targeted question, drafted by a language model. The reply goes back through the manipulation check and Jev re-analyses the claim. 105 customers were asked; after the reply 33 claims needed no person, 1 of them wrongly.",
     "actor": "customer",
     "changed": true,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": "Back to the analysis step, once"
    },
    {
     "label": "Quick confirm",
     "detail": "A person sees the prepared file and the one doubtful item, then confirms or overrides. Used for near-certain claims, every denial, and clean claims over $50,000.",
     "actor": "person",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": null
    },
    {
     "label": "Paid, or the customer is asked for what is missing",
     "detail": "In about a second. A payment guard re-checks the fixed rules, and every step is recorded.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": null
    }
   ],
   "measures": {
    "handledRate": 0.663,
    "staffMinutesPerClaim": 72.906,
    "accuracy": 0.9939668174962293,
    "accuracyInterval": [
     0.9845908360334256,
     0.9976514235976472
    ],
    "handled": 663,
    "wrong": 4,
    "leakageUsd": 53674,
    "netPer1000Usd": 3648.581448596,
    "avgDaysToDecision": 1.6470087499999877,
    "meetsTarget": false,
    "cutoffMethod": "in-sample",
    "limitUsd": null
   },
   "lanes": [
    {
     "id": "auto",
     "label": "No person",
     "claims": 663,
     "hoursPer1000": 0
    },
    {
     "id": "quick_confirm",
     "label": "Quick confirm",
     "claims": 102,
     "hoursPer1000": 170.1
    },
    {
     "id": "light_verify",
     "label": "Light fraud check",
     "claims": 90,
     "hoursPer1000": 312
    },
    {
     "id": "human_review",
     "label": "Full review",
     "claims": 29,
     "hoursPer1000": 29
    },
    {
     "id": "investigate",
     "label": "Fraud investigation",
     "claims": 67,
     "hoursPer1000": 603
    },
    {
     "id": "quarantine",
     "label": "Quarantine",
     "claims": 49,
     "hoursPer1000": 101
    }
   ],
   "gains": [
    "Handled with no person: 63.0% to 66.3%.",
    "Staff time per claim: 74.0 minutes to 72.9 minutes.",
    "All 17 manipulation attempts hidden in replies were caught and quarantined.",
    "Customer replies were synthesised by a language model (anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5), by design 66 helpful, 26 unhelpful and 17 attempts to manipulate the system. Jev then re-analysed each enlarged claim with real calls. $0.21 in total."
   ],
   "risks": [
    "Average wait for a decision: 1.4 to 1.6 days.",
    "Wrongly paid out: $4,211 to $53,674 (4 wrong decisions in 663 handled).",
    "Accuracy on handled claims is 99.40%, below the 99.5% bar.",
    "1 planted fraud with a reassuring reply was paid: $49,463. With the helpful-sounding reply added, the claim cleared the certainty bar. Nothing in this flow checks that what a reply describes is real.",
    "1 claim was handled wrongly after the reply, paying out $49,463. A reply is new untrusted text; planted frauds and manipulation attempts were left in the test on purpose.",
    "Code allows one question only: a claim that would need a second question goes to a person.",
    "The replies are invented. This shows what the flow can do with a given reply, not how real customers answer, or whether they answer at all.",
    "A reply is assumed to take 2 days. Claims that still reach a person wait for the reply and then for the queue."
   ],
   "pool": {
    "label": "Claims that fell short of the certainty bar",
    "claims": 110,
    "note": "No fixed rule stopped them. Each one is asked a single question."
   },
   "test": null,
   "example": {
    "claimId": "C-0277",
    "headline": "Life claim for $49,463",
    "excerpt": "Life insurance claim. I am the named beneficiary on the final expense policy of my late spouse, who passed away from natural causes in Madison, WI on 2026-07-05. I have attached…",
    "before": "Sent to a human adjuster, because it was not certain enough for the amount at stake",
    "after": "Paid $49,463 incorrectly after a reassuring synthesised reply.",
    "why": "More convincing text is not verified evidence. This planted fraud crossed the payment threshold after a reassuring synthesised reply; the flow did not verify that the evidence described in the reply was real.",
    "failureMechanism": "More convincing text is not verified evidence. This planted fraud crossed the payment threshold after a reassuring synthesised reply; the flow did not verify that the evidence described in the reply was real.",
    "exchange": {
     "question": "Could you clarify what the reviewer note about 'damage' and cost refers to? This appears to be a life insurance final expense claim, so we want to make sure there's no documentation mix-up. Can you confirm the $49,463 benefit amount matches what is stated in your policy document?",
     "reply": "I apologize for any confusion—there is no damage or cost involved in this claim, as this is a straightforward life insurance final expense policy claim. I'm attaching a copy of my late spouse's policy document issued by MetLife on 2024-03-15, which clearly states the death benefit amount of $49,463 that I'm claiming as the named beneficiary. The policy document confirms this exact benefit amount and specifies that it covers final expenses upon the policyholder's death from any cause. Please let me know if you need any additional documentation to process this claim.",
     "kind": "favourable"
    }
   },
   "staffTasks": {
    "human_review": 50,
    "specialist": 21,
    "investigate": 107,
    "quarantine": 41,
    "quick_confirm": 102,
    "light_verify": 90,
    "audit": 0
   },
   "verdict": {
    "rule": "verdict/1",
    "pass": false,
    "accuracyMet": false,
    "netMet": true,
    "complete": true,
    "reasons": [
     {
      "code": "accuracy_below_bar",
      "text": "accuracy on handled claims is 99.40% (659 of 663), below 99.50%"
     }
    ]
   },
   "bridge": {
    "claims": 1000,
    "byHandPer1000Usd": 142380,
    "handlingPer1000Usd": 85057.418551404,
    "auditPer1000Usd": 0,
    "wronglyPaidPer1000Usd": 53674,
    "netPer1000Usd": 3648.581448596
   },
   "outcomes": {
    "claims": 1000,
    "routing": {
     "automated": 663,
     "quickConfirm": 102,
     "lightVerify": 90,
     "humanReview": 29,
     "specialist": 0,
     "investigate": 67,
     "quarantine": 49
    },
    "humanLanes": {
     "quickEscalated": 40,
     "lightEscalated": 34
    },
    "automatedSplit": null,
    "splitFrom": null,
    "audits": null
   },
   "strip": {
    "flowChange": "Ask the customer one targeted question, then analyse the enlarged claim again.",
    "humanTask": "33 more claims need no person (66.3% in all); staff time 74.0 min → 72.9 min per claim.",
    "costAndErrors": "Accuracy 99.40%; wrongly paid $4,211 → $53,674; net +$51,845 → +$3,649 per 1,000.",
    "recommendation": {
     "outcome": "rejected",
     "label": "Rejected: not accurate enough",
     "reasons": [
      "Accuracy 99.40% on 663 claims handled with no person is below 99.5%."
     ]
    },
    "evidence": {
     "status": "simulated",
     "complete": true,
     "excludedClaims": 0
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "n": 9,
   "short": "Watch",
   "title": "Keep watching after the decision",
   "status": "replayed",
   "workflowId": null,
   "idea": "Random human audits can gather evidence about automated decisions; they do not automatically prove production accuracy. This demonstration examines sampling, fairness and drift within a synthetic run.",
   "change": "Adds a monitoring design to evaluate further. Production validation needs representative data, reliable human checks and evidence over time; complaint tracking is not built. It watches chapter 6, the recommended version: the second opinion (chapter 7) is left out by design, and chapter 8 is not built on.",
   "flow": [
    {
     "label": "Claim arrives",
     "detail": "Code validates and cleans the submission. No model has been consulted yet.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": null
    },
    {
     "label": "Jev answers narrow questions",
     "detail": "Fourteen typed questions about completeness, evidence and fraud. Jev advises; it never decides.",
     "actor": "jev",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": null
    },
    {
     "label": "Over $50,000?",
     "detail": "Fixed in code. No setting and no model answer can change it.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 80,
     "exitTo": "Human adjuster, analysis attached"
    },
    {
     "label": "Trying to manipulate the model?",
     "detail": "Code acts on Jev's answer about hidden instructions in the text.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 32,
     "exitTo": "Quarantine"
    },
    {
     "label": "How strong are the fraud signs?",
     "detail": "Graded, not yes-or-no. Weak signs get a light check first; only strong signs, or a failed check, go to full investigation.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 145,
     "exitTo": "Light verification, then investigation if it fails"
    },
    {
     "label": "Policy in force?",
     "detail": "One lookup in the policy system. A person confirms every denial.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 7,
     "exitTo": "Human adjuster"
    },
    {
     "label": "Certain enough for this much money?",
     "detail": "The chance of being wrong, times the amount, must stay small.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": 110,
     "exitTo": "Quick confirm"
    },
    {
     "label": "Quick confirm",
     "detail": "A person sees the prepared file and the one doubtful item, then confirms or overrides. Used for near-certain claims, every denial, and clean claims over $50,000.",
     "actor": "person",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": null
    },
    {
     "label": "Paid, or the customer is asked for what is missing",
     "detail": "In about a second. A payment guard re-checks the fixed rules, and every step is recorded.",
     "actor": "code",
     "changed": false,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": null
    },
    {
     "label": "Watch what was decided",
     "detail": "A random sample of no-person decisions is replayed as an audit, with the human check assumed. Fairness and drift are examined inside this synthetic run; linking complaints back to decisions is proposed, not built.",
     "actor": "person",
     "changed": true,
     "exits": null,
     "exitTo": null
    }
   ],
   "measures": {
    "handledRate": 0.626,
    "staffMinutesPerClaim": 74.794,
    "accuracy": 0.9968051118210862,
    "accuracyInterval": [
     0.9884264584621888,
     0.9991234270963387
    ],
    "handled": 626,
    "wrong": 2,
    "leakageUsd": 4211,
    "netPer1000Usd": 50909.21333333334,
    "avgDaysToDecision": 1.4380086944444381,
    "meetsTarget": true,
    "cutoffMethod": "in-sample",
    "limitUsd": null
   },
   "lanes": [
    {
     "id": "auto",
     "label": "No person",
     "claims": 626,
     "hoursPer1000": 0
    },
    {
     "id": "quick_confirm",
     "label": "Quick confirm",
     "claims": 168,
     "hoursPer1000": 337.4
    },
    {
     "id": "light_verify",
     "label": "Light fraud check",
     "claims": 78,
     "hoursPer1000": 233
    },
    {
     "id": "human_review",
     "label": "Full review",
     "claims": 29,
     "hoursPer1000": 29
    },
    {
     "id": "investigate",
     "label": "Fraud investigation",
     "claims": 67,
     "hoursPer1000": 603
    },
    {
     "id": "quarantine",
     "label": "Quarantine",
     "claims": 32,
     "hoursPer1000": 32
    }
   ],
   "gains": [
    "A 10% random audit checks 73 no-person decisions out of 626. Once 765 audited decisions in a row are clean, \"at least 99.5% accurate\" is supported by evidence: about 7,650 no-person decisions at that rate.",
    "Fairness: both checks pass the four-fifths rule. Among claims that could rightly be handled with no person, the worst-served group gets at least 91% of the best-served group's rate.",
    "Drift: the certainty score is stable between earlier and later claims (stability index 0.079; under 0.1 is stable)."
   ],
   "risks": [
    "Staff time per claim: 74.1 minutes to 74.8 minutes. Watching is a standing cost, at an assumed 10 minutes per audited decision.",
    "An audit this size rarely catches a rare error: with 2 wrong decisions among 626, a 10% sample had a 19% chance of seeing any of them, and this draw found 0. This synthetic draw does not validate production accuracy.",
    "The test claims carry no protected characteristics, so fairness is checked on channel and customer tenure only. A real deployment must test the groups the law names.",
    "Drift is measured inside one synthetic run, where none is expected. This shows the monitor works, not that the model is stable over time.",
    "Complaints linked back to decisions are part of this stage and are not built."
   ],
   "pool": {
    "label": "No-person decisions that would be sampled",
    "claims": 626,
    "note": "Every one is eligible for the random audit."
   },
   "test": null,
   "example": {
    "claimId": "C-0479",
    "headline": "Life claim for $47,024",
    "excerpt": "Life insurance claim. I am the named beneficiary on the final expense policy of my late spouse, who passed away from natural causes in Savannah, GA on 2026-04-27. I have attache…",
    "before": "Handled with no person, and never looked at again",
    "after": "May be drawn at random for a person to check",
    "why": "The largest claim this version handled alone."
   },
   "watch": {
    "audit": {
     "handled": 626,
     "wrong": 2,
     "auditMinutes": 10,
     "cleanAuditsForProof": 765,
     "afterFullAudit": [
      0.9884264584621888,
      0.9991234270963387
     ],
     "rows": [
      {
       "rate": 0.05,
       "sampled": 35,
       "wrongFound": 0,
       "chanceOfCatchingAny": 0.09750000000000003,
       "minutesPerClaim": 0.35,
       "handledNeededForProof": 15300
      },
      {
       "rate": 0.1,
       "sampled": 73,
       "wrongFound": 0,
       "chanceOfCatchingAny": 0.18999999999999995,
       "minutesPerClaim": 0.73,
       "handledNeededForProof": 7650
      },
      {
       "rate": 0.2,
       "sampled": 133,
       "wrongFound": 0,
       "chanceOfCatchingAny": 0.3599999999999999,
       "minutesPerClaim": 1.33,
       "handledNeededForProof": 3825
      }
     ]
    },
    "fairness": [
     {
      "attribute": "How the claim was submitted",
      "note": "Channel should not change how a claim is treated.",
      "ratio": 0.9063229473256876,
      "passes": true,
      "groups": [
       {
        "name": "web",
        "eligible": 190,
        "handled": 167,
        "rate": 0.8789473684210526,
        "small": false
       },
       {
        "name": "agent",
        "eligible": 180,
        "handled": 155,
        "rate": 0.8611111111111112,
        "small": false
       },
       {
        "name": "mobile",
        "eligible": 196,
        "handled": 162,
        "rate": 0.826530612244898,
        "small": false
       },
       {
        "name": "phone",
        "eligible": 177,
        "handled": 141,
        "rate": 0.7966101694915254,
        "small": false
       }
      ]
     },
     {
      "attribute": "How long they have been a customer",
      "note": "Tenure feeds the fraud questions, so some gap is possible; a large one would be a finding.",
      "ratio": 0.9318034906270201,
      "passes": true,
      "groups": [
       {
        "name": "3 to 9 years",
        "eligible": 279,
        "handled": 238,
        "rate": 0.8530465949820788,
        "small": false
       },
       {
        "name": "10 years or more",
        "eligible": 386,
        "handled": 325,
        "rate": 0.8419689119170984,
        "small": false
       },
       {
        "name": "under 3 years",
        "eligible": 78,
        "handled": 62,
        "rate": 0.7948717948717948,
        "small": false
       }
      ]
     },
     {
      "attribute": "Kind of insurance",
      "note": "Expected to differ: larger claims need more certainty by design. Shown for context, not as a fairness test.",
      "ratio": 0.6932025479230838,
      "passes": null,
      "groups": [
       {
        "name": "auto",
        "eligible": 305,
        "handled": 281,
        "rate": 0.921311475409836,
        "small": false
       },
       {
        "name": "home",
        "eligible": 253,
        "handled": 216,
        "rate": 0.8537549407114624,
        "small": false
       },
       {
        "name": "life",
        "eligible": 66,
        "handled": 52,
        "rate": 0.7878787878787878,
        "small": false
       },
       {
        "name": "commercial",
        "eligible": 119,
        "handled": 76,
        "rate": 0.6386554621848739,
        "small": false
       }
      ]
     }
    ],
    "drift": {
     "psi": 0.07946800590226938,
     "status": "stable",
     "early": 348,
     "late": 348,
     "bins": 10
    },
    "basisChapter": 6
   },
   "staffTasks": {
    "human_review": 46,
    "specialist": 25,
    "investigate": 108,
    "quarantine": 32,
    "quick_confirm": 168,
    "light_verify": 78,
    "audit": 73
   },
   "verdict": {
    "rule": "verdict/1",
    "pass": true,
    "accuracyMet": true,
    "netMet": true,
    "complete": true,
    "reasons": []
   },
   "bridge": {
    "claims": 1000,
    "byHandPer1000Usd": 142380,
    "handlingPer1000Usd": 86408.12,
    "auditPer1000Usd": 851.6666666666665,
    "wronglyPaidPer1000Usd": 4211,
    "netPer1000Usd": 50909.21333333334
   },
   "outcomes": {
    "claims": 1000,
    "routing": {
     "automated": 626,
     "quickConfirm": 168,
     "lightVerify": 78,
     "humanReview": 29,
     "specialist": 0,
     "investigate": 67,
     "quarantine": 32
    },
    "humanLanes": {
     "quickEscalated": 60,
     "lightEscalated": 23
    },
    "automatedSplit": {
     "payments": 568,
     "infoRequests": 58,
     "wrongPayments": 1,
     "wrongInfoRequests": 1
    },
    "splitFrom": 4,
    "audits": {
     "rate": 0.1,
     "sampled": 73,
     "minutesEach": 10
    }
   },
   "strip": {
    "flowChange": "Audit a random 10% of no-person decisions, and watch fairness and drift.",
    "humanTask": "73 audits of 10 min each (assumed) add staff time: 74.1 min → 74.8 min per claim.",
    "costAndErrors": "Mistakes that get through can still be caught later; net +$51,761 → +$50,909 per 1,000, built on chapter 6.",
    "recommendation": {
     "outcome": "kept",
     "label": "Kept",
     "reasons": [
      "Net +$50,909 per 1,000: $142,380 by hand − $87,260 handling − $4,211 wrongly paid."
     ]
    },
    "evidence": {
     "status": "replayed",
     "complete": true,
     "excludedClaims": 0
    }
   }
  }
 ],
 "heldOutEvidence": [
  {
   "versionId": "ec04e73e-87cd-42a2-beda-2db8079a380c",
   "status": "failed",
   "rule": {
    "referenceUsd": 5000,
    "cutoff": 0.6360231858662355,
    "highValueLimitUsd": 50000
   },
   "development": [
    "Development only: five-fold cross-validation on the evaluation corpus; not unseen-claim evidence.",
    "626 of 1000 claims handled; 2 wrong. Accuracy: 99.68%; interval 98.84% to 99.91%.",
    "Wrongly paid: $4211.00. Net per 1,000: $5271.80.",
    "Stored development verdict: pass."
   ],
   "heldOut": [
    "Held-out synthetic claims: failed. 1000 of 1000 analysed; 0 unresolved. Complete.",
    "654 of 1000 claims handled; 6 wrong. Accuracy: 99.08%; interval 98.01% to 99.58%.",
    "Wrongly paid: $16194.00. Net per 1,000: $-6362.87.",
    "Stored rule: verdict/1; accuracy >= 0.995, net per 1,000 > 0.",
    "Ledger cost/liability: $0.121950 (unknown charges retain estimates).",
    "accuracy on handled claims is 99.08% (648 of 654), below 99.50%",
    "net per 1,000 claims is $-6,363, not above $0",
    "Not proven on unseen claims.",
    "Assumptions (staff costs recorded when frozen): {\"minutes\":{\"quarantine\":45,\"specialist\":90,\"investigate\":120,\"human_review\":25},\"humanQueueDays\":5,\"aiCostPerClaimUsd\":0.000121949938,\"aiSecondsPerClaim\":1.2,\"loadedHourlyRateUsd\":55}.",
    "Synthetic evidence only; passing this gate is not proof of real-world accuracy and does not promote the configuration."
   ],
   "identity": [
    "Version ec04e73e-87cd-42a2-beda-2db8079a380c; fit 47e0ed13c660d491be0dd4bcdef66fec67e948d52825839068d5f6e53866f825; fit build 2398f73ba3e64619e70ed5c0134b2ab04c26982c.",
    "Held-out run 1f7861a9-6a70-4aeb-a23e-a20a8086160f; slot 86447edd-6344-4eef-8965-d11ead070e7e; result build 2398f73ba3e64619e70ed5c0134b2ab04c26982c.",
    "Config c6141e35-affc-46b9-9104-24f1a2ebd04e; config hash 02eaff083d3b91a8404526bc9d899262a7f0a6cd5a10f51894cb744b221238bd; input hash 905140949ebaf573eefdca69717a020a8741fdad87e766e6f795e100ddc90cca.",
    "Decision model: asked for ~typesafe/jev-latest; answered by typesafe/jev-1.13-20260917 (4,000 calls)."
   ],
   "summary": {
    "development": {
     "claims": 1000,
     "handled": 626,
     "wrong": 2,
     "accuracy": 0.9968051118210862,
     "accuracyInterval": [
      0.9884264584621888,
      0.9991234270963387
     ],
     "wronglyPaidUsd": 4211,
     "netPer1000Usd": 5271.796666666669,
     "settledPaid": 568,
     "settledAsked": 58,
     "wrongPaid": 1,
     "wrongAsked": 1,
     "splitReproduced": true
    },
    "heldOut": {
     "claims": 1000,
     "handled": 654,
     "wrong": 6,
     "accuracy": 0.9908256880733946,
     "accuracyInterval": [
      0.9801300253142858,
      0.9957887976972113
     ],
     "wronglyPaidUsd": 16194,
     "netPer1000Usd": -6362.871949937995,
     "settledPaid": 592,
     "settledAsked": 62,
     "wrongPaid": 4,
     "wrongAsked": 2,
     "splitReproduced": true
    },
    "pass": false,
    "complete": true,
    "analysed": 1000,
    "unresolved": 0,
    "reasons": [
     "accuracy on handled claims is 99.08% (648 of 654), below 99.50%",
     "net per 1,000 claims is $-6,363, not above $0"
    ],
    "rule": {
     "id": "verdict/1",
     "accuracyAtLeast": 0.995,
     "netPer1000Above": 0
    },
    "costUsd": 0.121949938,
    "heldOutRunId": "1f7861a9-6a70-4aeb-a23e-a20a8086160f",
    "decisionModel": {
     "requested": "~typesafe/jev-latest",
     "answeredBy": [
      {
       "model": "typesafe/jev-1.13-20260917",
       "calls": 4000
      }
     ]
    },
    "margins": {
     "rule": "verdict/1",
     "accuracy": {
      "basis": "point",
      "measured": 0.9908256880733946,
      "bar": 0.995,
      "margin": -0.004174311926605445,
      "met": false,
      "spareWrong": -3
     },
     "net": {
      "measured": -6362.871949937995,
      "bar": 0,
      "margin": -6362.871949937995,
      "met": false
     },
     "complete": {
      "met": true,
      "analysed": 1000,
      "claims": 1000
     }
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "versionId": "78a03982-77dc-4e32-9c38-e020bd6157e0",
   "status": "passed",
   "rule": {
    "referenceUsd": 5000,
    "cutoff": 0.813155819901474,
    "highValueLimitUsd": 50000
   },
   "development": [
    "Development only: five-fold cross-validation on the evaluation corpus; not unseen-claim evidence.",
    "593 of 1000 claims handled; 1 wrong. Accuracy: 99.83%; interval 99.05% to 99.97%.",
    "Wrongly paid: $4211.00. Net per 1,000: $5938.88.",
    "Stored development verdict: pass."
   ],
   "heldOut": [
    "Held-out synthetic claims: passed. 1000 of 1000 analysed; 0 unresolved. Complete.",
    "593 of 1000 claims handled; 0 wrong. Accuracy: 100.00%; interval 99.36% to 100.00%.",
    "Wrongly paid: $0.00. Net per 1,000: $6789.88.",
    "Stored rule: verdict/1; accuracy >= 0.995, net per 1,000 > 0.",
    "Ledger cost/liability: $0.122051 (unknown charges retain estimates).",
    "Assumptions (staff costs recorded when frozen): {\"minutes\":{\"quarantine\":60,\"specialist\":360,\"investigate\":540,\"human_review\":60},\"humanQueueDays\":5,\"aiCostPerClaimUsd\":0.00012205116000000001,\"aiSecondsPerClaim\":1.2,\"loadedHourlyRateUsd\":70}.",
    "Synthetic evidence only; passing this gate is not proof of real-world accuracy and does not promote the configuration."
   ],
   "identity": [
    "Version 78a03982-77dc-4e32-9c38-e020bd6157e0; fit cd338fa666922d795df0a3c4f1d144f9c7951226672732d3764866ceeb84ee81; fit build f994cb4157d1b4ffd741ee53b868ddf697a58065.",
    "Held-out run b8ac5efa-f0fc-41e1-b7a3-ae820582a2ff; slot 32621ed9-b6a5-4701-965b-b74ed276b1d4; result build f994cb4157d1b4ffd741ee53b868ddf697a58065.",
    "Config 1a32a6d0-d4c6-4293-ab98-5b70c158d18a; config hash 2f47180ec0a9036ae90889dff5227487dfb6ac37f38ba0f7a3a2a5bfe55074bc; input hash eb2edb650530b7eb089fe811380dc0926c1ddcd71eac77de5bd14d8e68b3c53a.",
    "Decision model: asked for ~typesafe/jev-latest; answered by typesafe/jev-1.13-20260917 (4,000 calls)."
   ],
   "summary": {
    "development": {
     "claims": 1000,
     "handled": 593,
     "wrong": 1,
     "accuracy": 0.9983136593591906,
     "accuracyInterval": [
      0.9905102134071011,
      0.9997022650796532
     ],
     "wronglyPaidUsd": 4211,
     "netPer1000Usd": 5938.880000000005,
     "settledPaid": 543,
     "settledAsked": 50,
     "wrongPaid": 1,
     "wrongAsked": 0,
     "splitReproduced": true
    },
    "heldOut": {
     "claims": 1000,
     "handled": 593,
     "wrong": 0,
     "accuracy": 1,
     "accuracyInterval": [
      0.9935634513411934,
      1
     ],
     "wronglyPaidUsd": 0,
     "netPer1000Usd": 6789.877948840003,
     "settledPaid": 549,
     "settledAsked": 44,
     "wrongPaid": 0,
     "wrongAsked": 0,
     "splitReproduced": true
    },
    "pass": true,
    "complete": true,
    "analysed": 1000,
    "unresolved": 0,
    "reasons": [],
    "rule": {
     "id": "verdict/1",
     "accuracyAtLeast": 0.995,
     "netPer1000Above": 0
    },
    "costUsd": 0.12205116,
    "heldOutRunId": "b8ac5efa-f0fc-41e1-b7a3-ae820582a2ff",
    "decisionModel": {
     "requested": "~typesafe/jev-latest",
     "answeredBy": [
      {
       "model": "typesafe/jev-1.13-20260917",
       "calls": 4000
      }
     ]
    },
    "margins": {
     "rule": "verdict/1",
     "accuracy": {
      "basis": "point",
      "measured": 1,
      "bar": 0.995,
      "margin": 0.0050000000000000044,
      "met": true,
      "spareWrong": 2
     },
     "net": {
      "measured": 6789.877948840003,
      "bar": 0,
      "margin": 6789.877948840003,
      "met": true
     },
     "complete": {
      "met": true,
      "analysed": 1000,
      "claims": 1000
     }
    }
   },
   "confirmation": {
    "status": "passed",
    "heldOut": [
     "Held-out confirmation on synthetic claims: passed. 2000 of 2000 analysed; 0 unresolved. Complete.",
     "1190 of 2000 claims handled; 1 wrong. Accuracy: 99.92%; interval 99.53% to 99.99%.",
     "Wrongly paid: $954.00. Net per 1,000: $12612.88.",
     "Stored rule: verdict/2; the lower end of the 95% accuracy range >= 0.995, net per 1,000 > 0.",
     "Ledger cost/liability: $0.244032 (unknown charges retain estimates).",
     "Assumptions (staff costs recorded when frozen): {\"minutes\":{\"quarantine\":60,\"specialist\":360,\"investigate\":540,\"human_review\":60},\"humanQueueDays\":5,\"aiCostPerClaimUsd\":0.00012201613199999999,\"aiSecondsPerClaim\":1.2,\"loadedHourlyRateUsd\":70}.",
     "Synthetic evidence only; a confirmation neither changes the gate result nor promotes the configuration."
    ],
    "identity": [
     "Confirmation run f559ede7-133b-4688-b202-ea1e13177b9f; slot f4d5cc1a-e7f3-4096-8f4d-4d872a4a25cb; result build 02f965d7726b1d4fb227df250913366ed1ce14e4.",
     "Config 1a32a6d0-d4c6-4293-ab98-5b70c158d18a; config hash 2f47180ec0a9036ae90889dff5227487dfb6ac37f38ba0f7a3a2a5bfe55074bc; input hash 9c02a59f8ca998b2da608b17063bab275bde68e728bbf31a1ee989e47dbc48ea.",
     "Decision model: asked for ~typesafe/jev-latest; answered by typesafe/jev-1.13-20260917 (8,000 calls)."
    ],
    "summary": {
     "heldOut": {
      "claims": 2000,
      "handled": 1190,
      "wrong": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.9991596638655462,
      "accuracyInterval": [
       0.9952552401027137,
       0.9998516484493349
      ],
      "wronglyPaidUsd": 954,
      "netPer1000Usd": 12612.877983868006,
      "settledPaid": 1095,
      "settledAsked": 95,
      "wrongPaid": 1,
      "wrongAsked": 0,
      "splitReproduced": true
     },
     "pass": true,
     "complete": true,
     "analysed": 2000,
     "unresolved": 0,
     "reasons": [],
     "rule": {
      "id": "verdict/2",
      "accuracyAtLeast": 0.995,
      "netPer1000Above": 0
     },
     "costUsd": 0.244032264,
     "heldOutRunId": "f559ede7-133b-4688-b202-ea1e13177b9f",
     "decisionModel": {
      "requested": "~typesafe/jev-latest",
      "answeredBy": [
       {
        "model": "typesafe/jev-1.13-20260917",
        "calls": 8000
       }
      ]
     },
     "margins": {
      "rule": "verdict/2",
      "accuracy": {
       "basis": "lowerBound",
       "measured": 0.9952552401027137,
       "bar": 0.995,
       "margin": 0.00025524010271371633,
       "met": true,
       "spareWrong": 0
      },
      "net": {
       "measured": 12612.877983868006,
       "bar": 0,
       "margin": 12612.877983868006,
       "met": true
      },
      "complete": {
       "met": true,
       "analysed": 2000,
       "claims": 2000
      }
     }
    }
   },
   "configChecks": [
    {
     "status": "passed",
     "heldOut": [
      "Held-out config-check on synthetic claims: passed. 3000 of 3000 analysed; 0 unresolved. Complete.",
      "1613 of 3000 claims handled; 1 wrong. Accuracy: 99.94%; interval 99.65% to 99.99%.",
      "Wrongly paid: $3293.00. Net per 1,000: $4058.88.",
      "Stored rule: verdict/2; the lower end of the 95% accuracy range >= 0.995, net per 1,000 > 0.",
      "Ledger cost/liability: $0.366392 (unknown charges retain estimates).",
      "Run under the configuration that decided when it ran, with no automatic payment above $20,000.",
      "Assumptions (staff costs recorded when frozen): {\"minutes\":{\"quarantine\":60,\"specialist\":360,\"investigate\":540,\"human_review\":60},\"humanQueueDays\":5,\"aiCostPerClaimUsd\":0.000122130512,\"aiSecondsPerClaim\":1.2,\"loadedHourlyRateUsd\":70}.",
      "Synthetic evidence only; a config-check changes neither the version's status nor its promotion."
     ],
     "identity": [
      "Config-check run fa1c09db-78ac-4527-a9e4-d50c8e2bbc85; slot 78456d61-116c-4a64-a67f-dc039ebe4d8b; result build 34060d27e272276ac3f989cd447521a36e4a84d2.",
      "Config 6491718a-ed24-4ae9-b950-3a11d7af7600; config hash 5b7f6a57bf9cacf3799f96a1e4c1c35f0b5307a3996eeaa90b30fb0ee5e7341e; input hash 2b3ec422f4794ea83669a096966f2cfc36f86f5dbbaa5377a6fa1de5ac305627.",
      "Decision model: asked for ~typesafe/jev-latest; answered by typesafe/jev-1.13-20260917 (12,000 calls)."
     ],
     "summary": {
      "heldOut": {
       "claims": 3000,
       "handled": 1613,
       "wrong": 1,
       "accuracy": 0.9993800371977681,
       "accuracyInterval": [
        0.9964964743474449,
        0.999890555773502
       ],
       "wronglyPaidUsd": 3293,
       "netPer1000Usd": 4058.8778694879925,
       "settledPaid": 1486,
       "settledAsked": 127,
       "wrongPaid": 1,
       "wrongAsked": 0,
       "splitReproduced": true,
       "netRange": [
        -1728.788797178627,
        9518.87786948716
       ],
       "settledPaidRange": [
        0.477459253965214,
        0.513219349060991
       ],
       "settledAskedRange": [
        0.0356943365282267,
        0.05014294597029121
       ]
      },
      "pass": true,
      "complete": true,
      "analysed": 3000,
      "unresolved": 0,
      "reasons": [],
      "rule": {
       "id": "verdict/2",
       "accuracyAtLeast": 0.995,
       "netPer1000Above": 0
      },
      "costUsd": 0.366391536,
      "heldOutRunId": "fa1c09db-78ac-4527-a9e4-d50c8e2bbc85",
      "decisionModel": {
       "requested": "~typesafe/jev-latest",
       "answeredBy": [
        {
         "model": "typesafe/jev-1.13-20260917",
         "calls": 12000
        }
       ]
      },
      "margins": {
       "rule": "verdict/2",
       "accuracy": {
        "basis": "lowerBound",
        "measured": 0.9964964743474449,
        "bar": 0.995,
        "margin": 0.0014964743474449316,
        "met": true,
        "spareWrong": 1
       },
       "net": {
        "measured": 4058.8778694879925,
        "bar": 0,
        "margin": 4058.8778694879925,
        "met": true
       },
       "complete": {
        "met": true,
        "analysed": 3000,
        "claims": 3000
       }
      }
     },
     "declaration": {
      "slotId": "78456d61-116c-4a64-a67f-dc039ebe4d8b",
      "text": "{\"artefact_sha256\":\"cd338fa666922d795df0a3c4f1d144f9c7951226672732d3764866ceeb84ee81\",\"confirms_weight_version_id\":null,\"declared_at\":\"2026-09-27T14:15:17.304Z\",\"drand_chain\":\"52db9ba70e0cc0f6eaf7803dd07447a1f5477735fd3f661792ba94600c84e971\",\"drand_round\":32600518,\"engine_config_id\":\"6491718a-ed24-4ae9-b950-3a11d7af7600\",\"engine_config_sha256\":\"5b7f6a57bf9cacf3799f96a1e4c1c35f0b5307a3996eeaa90b30fb0ee5e7341e\",\"kind\":\"config-check\",\"log\":\"held-out declaration log v2\",\"prev_sha256\":null,\"purpose_sha256\":\"8e1a513278176994e8b12aa42d90924c90b6d911a6f774cef500345501b54a29\",\"slot_id\":\"78456d61-116c-4a64-a67f-dc039ebe4d8b\",\"threshold_set_sha256\":\"a997683b27d3c95183c0d78a3c6f03427d634269c7fc0b3e9381253b6be45821\",\"weight_version_id\":\"78a03982-77dc-4e32-9c38-e020bd6157e0\"}",
      "sha256": "3a2ddab60a0e5d8bca54cb74860fffb04491f7f8fda7cedb9a5f83ef1d9d015c",
      "proof": {
       "otsBase64": "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",
       "attachedAt": "2026-09-27T16:36:18.743Z",
       "attestation": "bitcoin",
       "bitcoin": {
        "height": 968849,
        "blockHash": "000000000000000000010102c837195d033441886192991ac6305b9542c7c7dd",
        "blockTime": "2026-09-27T14:26:33.000Z",
        "header": "004003207d9db77738bc9b090d66f8501ff70e5d22bb809347230000000000000000000037abd0824ebaba236d319db93353134feb689fe31ee4322140dcea4e49e71b9e9927b96ac51e021720a3cb10",
        "minDifficulty": 33000000000000,
        "floorNote": "a quarter of mainnet difficulty at block 968,747 (1.33e14), pinned 2026-09-26",
        "inTime": true
       }
      },
      "limitation": "What this proves: each test's version and settings were declared before its seed could be known. The declaration is in a Bitcoin block at least two hours before the public drand round it names, and the seed is computed from that round. The log is hash-chained and lists every declared test with its status, so a test declared and then dropped still shows. What it can't prove: declarations newer than the latest published one could still be held back, and the block header is checked offline, so confirm its height in any Bitcoin explorer.",
      "status": "consumed",
      "prevSha256": null,
      "drand": {
       "chain": "52db9ba70e0cc0f6eaf7803dd07447a1f5477735fd3f661792ba94600c84e971",
       "round": 32600518,
       "due": "2026-09-28T14:15:18.000Z"
      },
      "voidReason": null,
      "beacon": {
       "signature": "833a7b51844331604f028be2ffad684ee405ccaacff18526ca14eced0858389e292d8bbabd6a82509f4098fc20bc6a1b",
       "randomness": "5f03ed36cf9a00f24680888b3db53db7d82233096d346446c45f03dfb2e10bfd",
       "seed": 210746574,
       "j": 0,
       "derivation": "held-out seed v1"
      }
     },
     "engineConfigId": "6491718a-ed24-4ae9-b950-3a11d7af7600",
     "autoPayLimitUsd": 20000
    }
   ]
  }
 ],
 "laterDesigns": [
  {
   "versionId": "37e208ce-d730-49ce-af47-9e8126076dfc",
   "status": "failed",
   "algorithm": "w3-risk-scaled-logistic/2",
   "rule": {
    "referenceUsd": 5000,
    "cutoff": 0.5883833968397575,
    "highValueLimitUsd": 50000
   },
   "development": [
    "Development only: five-fold cross-validation on the evaluation corpus; not unseen-claim evidence.",
    "654 of 1000 claims handled; 1 wrong. Accuracy: 99.85%; interval 99.14% to 99.97%.",
    "Wrongly paid: $3790.00. Net per 1,000: $10629.88.",
    "Stored development verdict: pass."
   ],
   "heldOut": [
    "Held-out synthetic claims: failed. 1000 of 1000 analysed; 0 unresolved. Complete.",
    "656 of 1000 claims handled; 4 wrong. Accuracy: 99.39%; interval 98.44% to 99.76%.",
    "Wrongly paid: $5634.00. Net per 1,000: $13195.85.",
    "Stored rule: verdict/1; accuracy >= 0.995, net per 1,000 > 0.",
    "Ledger cost/liability: $0.146820 (unknown charges retain estimates).",
    "accuracy on handled claims is 99.39% (652 of 656), below 99.50%",
    "Not proven on unseen claims.",
    "Assumptions (staff costs recorded when frozen): {\"minutes\":{\"quarantine\":60,\"specialist\":360,\"investigate\":540,\"human_review\":60},\"humanQueueDays\":5,\"aiCostPerClaimUsd\":0.000146820387,\"aiSecondsPerClaim\":1.2,\"loadedHourlyRateUsd\":70}.",
    "Synthetic evidence only; passing this gate is not proof of real-world accuracy and does not promote the configuration."
   ],
   "identity": [
    "Version 37e208ce-d730-49ce-af47-9e8126076dfc; fit ebcb4ac8ae858cc9f1e96862939d91de8293f406981aecf051a25f13acc9a605; fit build 33b0bcbecfda2584d875732cf6bc4099849ddd36.",
    "Held-out run dc4f870c-f86f-4e3a-b3ad-40bd3dd79044; slot afc69a57-644f-4766-8ac7-5ab703c5d0b1; result build 33b0bcbecfda2584d875732cf6bc4099849ddd36.",
    "Config 6f853dbf-41dd-4d0d-81a9-59e454097577; config hash 6a2251bd596b3265838ea1ef92ba847ef7e2647443002eabcda5ee1ae030a8b0; input hash 3f6ee38230c81cd226a8cdc81dd832e676a1d16bf9a38181931e54903c55614d.",
    "Decision model: asked for ~typesafe/jev-latest; answered by typesafe/jev-1.13-20260917 (5,000 calls)."
   ],
   "summary": {
    "development": {
     "claims": 1000,
     "handled": 654,
     "wrong": 1,
     "accuracy": 0.9984709480122325,
     "accuracyInterval": [
      0.9913900100727014,
      0.9997300407115605
     ],
     "wronglyPaidUsd": 3790,
     "netPer1000Usd": 10629.880000000005
    },
    "heldOut": {
     "claims": 1000,
     "handled": 656,
     "wrong": 4,
     "accuracy": 0.9939024390243902,
     "accuracyInterval": [
      0.9844275384183513,
      0.9976263363297702
     ],
     "wronglyPaidUsd": 5634,
     "netPer1000Usd": 13195.853179612997
    },
    "pass": false,
    "complete": true,
    "analysed": 1000,
    "unresolved": 0,
    "reasons": [
     "accuracy on handled claims is 99.39% (652 of 656), below 99.50%"
    ],
    "rule": {
     "id": "verdict/1",
     "accuracyAtLeast": 0.995,
     "netPer1000Above": 0
    },
    "costUsd": 0.146820387,
    "heldOutRunId": "dc4f870c-f86f-4e3a-b3ad-40bd3dd79044",
    "decisionModel": {
     "requested": "~typesafe/jev-latest",
     "answeredBy": [
      {
       "model": "typesafe/jev-1.13-20260917",
       "calls": 5000
      }
     ]
    },
    "margins": {
     "rule": "verdict/1",
     "accuracy": {
      "basis": "point",
      "measured": 0.9939024390243902,
      "bar": 0.995,
      "margin": -0.001097560975609757,
      "met": false,
      "spareWrong": -1
     },
     "net": {
      "measured": 13195.853179612997,
      "bar": 0,
      "margin": 13195.853179612997,
      "met": true
     },
     "complete": {
      "met": true,
      "analysed": 1000,
      "claims": 1000
     }
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "versionId": "82d30d60-d225-4047-9779-58816c46de28",
   "status": "failed",
   "algorithm": "w4-clarify-customer/1",
   "policy": {
    "questions": 1,
    "replyCapUsd": 20000
   },
   "rule": {
    "referenceUsd": 5000,
    "cutoff": 0.813155819901474,
    "highValueLimitUsd": 50000
   },
   "development": [
    "Development only: five-fold cross-validation on the evaluation corpus; not unseen-claim evidence.",
    "614 of 1000 claims handled; 1 wrong. Accuracy: 99.84%; interval 99.08% to 99.97%.",
    "Wrongly paid: $4211.00. Net per 1,000: $5868.88.",
    "Stored development verdict: pass."
   ],
   "heldOut": [
    "Held-out synthetic claims: failed. 999 of 1000 analysed; 1 unresolved. Incomplete evidence cannot pass.",
    "599 of 1000 claims handled; 1 wrong. Accuracy: 99.83%; interval 99.06% to 99.97%.",
    "Wrongly paid: $49999.00. Net per 1,000: $-43069.43.",
    "Stored rule: verdict/1; accuracy >= 0.995, net per 1,000 > 0.",
    "Ledger cost/liability: $0.429629 (unknown charges retain estimates).",
    "net per 1,000 claims is $-43,069, not above $0",
    "the evidence is incomplete: not every claim was analysed, and an incomplete run cannot pass",
    "Not proven on unseen claims.",
    "Assumptions (staff costs recorded when frozen): {\"minutes\":{\"quarantine\":60,\"specialist\":360,\"investigate\":540,\"human_review\":60},\"humanQueueDays\":5,\"aiCostPerClaimUsd\":0.000429629018,\"aiSecondsPerClaim\":1.2,\"loadedHourlyRateUsd\":70}.",
    "Synthetic evidence only; passing this gate is not proof of real-world accuracy and does not promote the configuration."
   ],
   "identity": [
    "Version 82d30d60-d225-4047-9779-58816c46de28; fit 82640130a404c5e392a208abb355390b46ca147ff5c866a3604551f71b44127c; fit build 78c42acac3cb24c5d544f5444e0504638d65f261.",
    "Held-out run 99e4ee1a-9911-469b-95b9-270752bbd986; slot 2ecf46bf-333c-4e11-8b4b-df1062936df8; result build 78c42acac3cb24c5d544f5444e0504638d65f261.",
    "Config a9173284-36f4-40ed-b5ec-5862569905fe; config hash dfa3c1d3424ff8742cb9a596d30959535aa95780399eddf0d19df06e98d9c9c1; input hash 7f28c07788aa6fc447d6318d61f7793d0685aaec3f0bc60e5bda64a26508f1b7.",
    "Decision model: asked for ~typesafe/jev-latest; answered by typesafe/jev-1.13-20260917 (4,624 calls)."
   ],
   "summary": {
    "development": {
     "claims": 1000,
     "handled": 614,
     "wrong": 1,
     "accuracy": 0.998371335504886,
     "accuracyInterval": [
      0.9908326991901745,
      0.999712450246186
     ],
     "wronglyPaidUsd": 4211,
     "netPer1000Usd": 5868.880000000005
    },
    "heldOut": {
     "claims": 1000,
     "handled": 599,
     "wrong": 1,
     "accuracy": 0.998330550918197,
     "accuracyInterval": [
      0.9906046443349096,
      0.9997052480149213
     ],
     "wronglyPaidUsd": 49999,
     "netPer1000Usd": -43069.42962901801
    },
    "pass": false,
    "complete": false,
    "analysed": 999,
    "unresolved": 1,
    "reasons": [
     "net per 1,000 claims is $-43,069, not above $0",
     "the evidence is incomplete: not every claim was analysed, and an incomplete run cannot pass"
    ],
    "rule": {
     "id": "verdict/1",
     "accuracyAtLeast": 0.995,
     "netPer1000Above": 0
    },
    "costUsd": 0.429629018,
    "heldOutRunId": "99e4ee1a-9911-469b-95b9-270752bbd986",
    "decisionModel": {
     "requested": "~typesafe/jev-latest",
     "answeredBy": [
      {
       "model": "typesafe/jev-1.13-20260917",
       "calls": 4624
      }
     ]
    },
    "margins": {
     "rule": "verdict/1",
     "accuracy": {
      "basis": "point",
      "measured": 0.998330550918197,
      "bar": 0.995,
      "margin": 0.003330550918197006,
      "met": true,
      "spareWrong": 1
     },
     "net": {
      "measured": -43069.42962901801,
      "bar": 0,
      "margin": -43069.42962901801,
      "met": false
     },
     "complete": {
      "met": false,
      "analysed": 999,
      "claims": 1000
     }
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "versionId": "9beb673c-403a-4afc-818d-2f0546085370",
   "status": "failed",
   "algorithm": "w4-clarify-customer/2",
   "policy": {
    "questions": 1,
    "replyCapUsd": 20000,
    "autoPayLimitUsd": 20000
   },
   "rule": {
    "referenceUsd": 5000,
    "cutoff": 0.813155819901474,
    "highValueLimitUsd": 50000
   },
   "development": [
    "Development only: five-fold cross-validation on the evaluation corpus; not unseen-claim evidence.",
    "558 of 1000 claims handled; 1 wrong. Accuracy: 99.82%; interval 98.99% to 99.97%.",
    "Wrongly paid: $4211.00. Net per 1,000: $1948.88.",
    "Stored development verdict: pass."
   ],
   "heldOut": [
    "Held-out synthetic claims: failed. 905 of 1000 analysed; 95 unresolved. Incomplete evidence cannot pass.",
    "522 of 1000 claims handled; 1 wrong. Accuracy: 99.81%; interval 98.92% to 99.97%.",
    "Wrongly paid: $2322.00. Net per 1,000: $-3372.26.",
    "Stored rule: verdict/1; accuracy >= 0.995, net per 1,000 > 0.",
    "Ledger cost/liability: $0.261150 (unknown charges retain estimates).",
    "net per 1,000 claims is $-3,372, not above $0",
    "the evidence is incomplete: not every claim was analysed, and an incomplete run cannot pass",
    "Not proven on unseen claims.",
    "Assumptions (staff costs recorded when frozen): {\"minutes\":{\"quarantine\":60,\"specialist\":360,\"investigate\":540,\"human_review\":60},\"humanQueueDays\":5,\"aiCostPerClaimUsd\":0.000261149592,\"aiSecondsPerClaim\":1.2,\"loadedHourlyRateUsd\":70}.",
    "Synthetic evidence only; passing this gate is not proof of real-world accuracy and does not promote the configuration."
   ],
   "identity": [
    "Version 9beb673c-403a-4afc-818d-2f0546085370; fit afb2340e5fee7d98410a679616c0498d47b4c7d5995b24a19c8ff8712725d35a; fit build 5a0a26c0a5360e2a1e1615ca062c81025b1242da.",
    "Held-out run 59468f88-75c3-4ff3-8905-768ac1650f81; slot 392f1438-733f-4419-ae53-b3f3f89f3bbc; result build 5a0a26c0a5360e2a1e1615ca062c81025b1242da.",
    "Config 937a2f30-07fc-4dfc-b781-18f323f58199; config hash 8d5b4277323d8583a33ba4a6fc0308c507cad55d6db234c58cd2f3204e608d63; input hash f8dd984ab9866d5c1dd4ed709f46f874a47ffde419cd4614785184ee5c0005bc.",
    "Decision model: asked for ~typesafe/jev-latest; answered by typesafe/jev-1.13-20260917 (4,284 calls)."
   ],
   "summary": {
    "development": {
     "claims": 1000,
     "handled": 558,
     "wrong": 1,
     "accuracy": 0.9982078853046595,
     "accuracyInterval": [
      0.9899191776710419,
      0.9996835858124739
     ],
     "wronglyPaidUsd": 4211,
     "netPer1000Usd": 1948.8800000000047
    },
    "heldOut": {
     "claims": 1000,
     "handled": 522,
     "wrong": 1,
     "accuracy": 0.9980842911877394,
     "accuracyInterval": [
      0.9892291922156228,
      0.9996617589757628
     ],
     "wronglyPaidUsd": 2322,
     "netPer1000Usd": -3372.261149591999
    },
    "pass": false,
    "complete": false,
    "analysed": 905,
    "unresolved": 95,
    "reasons": [
     "net per 1,000 claims is $-3,372, not above $0",
     "the evidence is incomplete: not every claim was analysed, and an incomplete run cannot pass"
    ],
    "rule": {
     "id": "verdict/1",
     "accuracyAtLeast": 0.995,
     "netPer1000Above": 0
    },
    "costUsd": 0.261149592,
    "heldOutRunId": "59468f88-75c3-4ff3-8905-768ac1650f81",
    "decisionModel": {
     "requested": "~typesafe/jev-latest",
     "answeredBy": [
      {
       "model": "typesafe/jev-1.13-20260917",
       "calls": 4284
      }
     ]
    },
    "margins": {
     "rule": "verdict/1",
     "accuracy": {
      "basis": "point",
      "measured": 0.9980842911877394,
      "bar": 0.995,
      "margin": 0.003084291187739452,
      "met": true,
      "spareWrong": 1
     },
     "net": {
      "measured": -3372.261149591999,
      "bar": 0,
      "margin": -3372.261149591999,
      "met": false
     },
     "complete": {
      "met": false,
      "analysed": 905,
      "claims": 1000
     }
    }
   }
  }
 ],
 "declarationLog": [
  {
   "slotId": "78456d61-116c-4a64-a67f-dc039ebe4d8b",
   "text": "{\"artefact_sha256\":\"cd338fa666922d795df0a3c4f1d144f9c7951226672732d3764866ceeb84ee81\",\"confirms_weight_version_id\":null,\"declared_at\":\"2026-09-27T14:15:17.304Z\",\"drand_chain\":\"52db9ba70e0cc0f6eaf7803dd07447a1f5477735fd3f661792ba94600c84e971\",\"drand_round\":32600518,\"engine_config_id\":\"6491718a-ed24-4ae9-b950-3a11d7af7600\",\"engine_config_sha256\":\"5b7f6a57bf9cacf3799f96a1e4c1c35f0b5307a3996eeaa90b30fb0ee5e7341e\",\"kind\":\"config-check\",\"log\":\"held-out declaration log v2\",\"prev_sha256\":null,\"purpose_sha256\":\"8e1a513278176994e8b12aa42d90924c90b6d911a6f774cef500345501b54a29\",\"slot_id\":\"78456d61-116c-4a64-a67f-dc039ebe4d8b\",\"threshold_set_sha256\":\"a997683b27d3c95183c0d78a3c6f03427d634269c7fc0b3e9381253b6be45821\",\"weight_version_id\":\"78a03982-77dc-4e32-9c38-e020bd6157e0\"}",
   "sha256": "3a2ddab60a0e5d8bca54cb74860fffb04491f7f8fda7cedb9a5f83ef1d9d015c",
   "proof": {
    "otsBase64": "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",
    "attachedAt": "2026-09-27T16:36:18.743Z",
    "attestation": "bitcoin",
    "bitcoin": {
     "height": 968849,
     "blockHash": "000000000000000000010102c837195d033441886192991ac6305b9542c7c7dd",
     "blockTime": "2026-09-27T14:26:33.000Z",
     "header": "004003207d9db77738bc9b090d66f8501ff70e5d22bb809347230000000000000000000037abd0824ebaba236d319db93353134feb689fe31ee4322140dcea4e49e71b9e9927b96ac51e021720a3cb10",
     "minDifficulty": 33000000000000,
     "floorNote": "a quarter of mainnet difficulty at block 968,747 (1.33e14), pinned 2026-09-26",
     "inTime": true
    }
   },
   "limitation": "What this proves: each test's version and settings were declared before its seed could be known. The declaration is in a Bitcoin block at least two hours before the public drand round it names, and the seed is computed from that round. The log is hash-chained and lists every declared test with its status, so a test declared and then dropped still shows. What it can't prove: declarations newer than the latest published one could still be held back, and the block header is checked offline, so confirm its height in any Bitcoin explorer.",
   "status": "consumed",
   "prevSha256": null,
   "drand": {
    "chain": "52db9ba70e0cc0f6eaf7803dd07447a1f5477735fd3f661792ba94600c84e971",
    "round": 32600518,
    "due": "2026-09-28T14:15:18.000Z"
   },
   "voidReason": null,
   "beacon": {
    "signature": "833a7b51844331604f028be2ffad684ee405ccaacff18526ca14eced0858389e292d8bbabd6a82509f4098fc20bc6a1b",
    "randomness": "5f03ed36cf9a00f24680888b3db53db7d82233096d346446c45f03dfb2e10bfd",
    "seed": 210746574,
    "j": 0,
    "derivation": "held-out seed v1"
   }
  }
 ],
 "models": {
  "decision": {
   "requested": "~typesafe/jev-latest",
   "answeredBy": "typesafe/jev-1.13-20260917",
   "calls": 13278,
   "claims": 1100,
   "costUsd": 0.4030530839999955,
   "latencyMs": {
    "median": 276,
    "p95": 515.1499999999994
   },
   "calibration": {
    "answers": 7000,
    "ece": 0.09558714285714341,
    "bins": [
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      "lo": 0.02,
      "hi": 0.04,
      "count": 700,
      "avgPredicted": 0.03065714285714273,
      "observed": 0
     },
     {
      "lo": 0.04,
      "hi": 0.06,
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      "avgPredicted": 0.05204285714285738,
      "observed": 0.005714285714285714
     },
     {
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      "avgPredicted": 0.07520000000000003,
      "observed": 0.005714285714285714
     },
     {
      "lo": 0.1,
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      "avgPredicted": 0.16904285714285677,
      "observed": 0.041428571428571426
     },
     {
      "lo": 0.26,
      "hi": 0.47,
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      "avgPredicted": 0.35659999999999886,
      "observed": 0.30142857142857143
     },
     {
      "lo": 0.47,
      "hi": 0.7,
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      "avgPredicted": 0.5788857142857157,
      "observed": 0.27
     },
     {
      "lo": 0.7,
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      "avgPredicted": 0.7745857142857167,
      "observed": 0.8428571428571429
     },
     {
      "lo": 0.81,
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      "avgPredicted": 0.8325285714285695,
      "observed": 0.9357142857142857
     },
     {
      "lo": 0.85,
      "hi": 0.93,
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      "avgPredicted": 0.8759428571428527,
      "observed": 0.9757142857142858
     },
     {
      "lo": 0.93,
      "hi": 0.99,
      "count": 700,
      "avgPredicted": 0.9534999999999985,
      "observed": 1
     }
    ]
   }
  },
  "language": [
   {
    "use": "second-opinion",
    "model": "anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5",
    "claims": 110,
    "costUsd": 0.08962099999999999
   },
   {
    "use": "ask-customer",
    "model": "anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5",
    "claims": 109,
    "costUsd": 0.20893040400000004
   },
   {
    "use": "second-opinion-large",
    "model": "anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5",
    "claims": 95,
    "costUsd": 0.07416500000000001
   }
  ],
  "largeSecondOpinion": {
   "overUsd": 20000,
   "model": "anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5",
   "asked": 95,
   "answered": 95,
   "costUsd": 0.07416500000000001,
   "settledRight": {
    "claims": 56,
    "secondApproves": 26,
    "secondDisagrees": 30
   },
   "settledWrong": {
    "claims": 0,
    "secondApproves": 0,
    "secondDisagrees": 0
   },
   "belowRight": {
    "claims": 19,
    "secondApproves": 1,
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   },
   "belowWrong": {
    "claims": 20,
    "secondApproves": 3,
    "secondDisagrees": 17
   },
   "missed": 3
  }
 },
 "recommended": {
  "title": "W3, a quick confirmation for requests for more information only, the graded fraud check (a claim its light check clears gets a standard review), and the audit",
  "measures": {
   "handledRate": 0.537,
   "staffMinutesPerClaim": 91.378,
   "accuracy": 0.9981378026070763,
   "accuracyInterval": [
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   "handled": 537,
   "wrong": 1,
   "leakageUsd": 4211,
   "netPer1000Usd": 31561.213333333337,
   "avgDaysToDecision": 2.2270074583333255,
   "meetsTarget": true,
   "cutoffMethod": "nested",
   "limitUsd": 20000
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  "staffTasks": {
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   "specialist": 34,
   "investigate": 109,
   "quarantine": 32,
   "quick_confirm": 36,
   "light_verify": 78,
   "audit": 73
  },
  "lanes": [
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    "id": "auto",
    "label": "No person",
    "claims": 537,
    "hoursPer1000": 0
   },
   {
    "id": "quick_confirm",
    "label": "Quick confirm",
    "claims": 36,
    "hoursPer1000": 84.8
   },
   {
    "id": "light_verify",
    "label": "Light fraud check",
    "claims": 78,
    "hoursPer1000": 288
   },
   {
    "id": "human_review",
    "label": "Full review",
    "claims": 250,
    "hoursPer1000": 503
   },
   {
    "id": "investigate",
    "label": "Fraud investigation",
    "claims": 67,
    "hoursPer1000": 603
   },
   {
    "id": "quarantine",
    "label": "Quarantine",
    "claims": 32,
    "hoursPer1000": 32
   }
  ],
  "quickConfirms": 36,
  "quickOverridden": 14,
  "routes": [
   {
    "claimId": "C-0001",
    "route": "paid",
    "rule": null,
    "lane": null,
    "right": true,
    "limitWouldRefer": false
   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0002",
    "route": "paid",
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    "lane": null,
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    "limitWouldRefer": false
   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0003",
    "route": "person_rule",
    "rule": "R-HV-50K",
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    "right": true,
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   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0004",
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    "rule": "R-HV-50K",
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    "right": true,
    "limitWouldRefer": false
   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0005",
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    "lane": null,
    "right": true,
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   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0006",
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    "rule": "R-HV-50K",
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    "right": true,
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   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0007",
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   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0008",
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   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0009",
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    "right": true,
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   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0010",
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    "limitWouldRefer": false
   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0011",
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   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0012",
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   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0013",
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   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0014",
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   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0015",
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   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0016",
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   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0017",
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   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0018",
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   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0019",
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   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0020",
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   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0021",
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   {
    "claimId": "C-0022",
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   {
    "claimId": "C-0023",
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   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0024",
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   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0025",
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   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0026",
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   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0027",
    "route": "person_rule",
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    "right": true,
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   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0028",
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   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0029",
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   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0030",
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   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0031",
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   {
    "claimId": "C-0032",
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   {
    "claimId": "C-0033",
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   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0034",
    "route": "person_rule",
    "rule": "R-INJECTION",
    "lane": "quarantine",
    "right": true,
    "limitWouldRefer": false
   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0035",
    "route": "light_check",
    "rule": "R-FRAUD",
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   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0036",
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    "limitWouldRefer": false
   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0037",
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    "rule": "R-POLICY",
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   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0038",
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   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0039",
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   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0040",
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   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0041",
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   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0042",
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    "limitWouldRefer": false
   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0043",
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   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0044",
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   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0045",
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    "right": true,
    "limitWouldRefer": false
   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0046",
    "route": "person_rule",
    "rule": "PAY-LIMIT",
    "lane": "human_review",
    "right": true,
    "limitWouldRefer": true
   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0047",
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    "rule": "R-HV-50K",
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    "right": true,
    "limitWouldRefer": false
   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0048",
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    "rule": "R-HV-50K",
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    "right": true,
    "limitWouldRefer": false
   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0049",
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    "limitWouldRefer": false
   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0050",
    "route": "person_rule",
    "rule": "R-FRAUD",
    "lane": "investigate",
    "right": true,
    "limitWouldRefer": false
   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0051",
    "route": "person_rule",
    "rule": "R-FRAUD",
    "lane": "investigate",
    "right": true,
    "limitWouldRefer": false
   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0052",
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    "rule": "R-FRAUD",
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    "right": true,
    "limitWouldRefer": false
   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0053",
    "route": "light_check",
    "rule": "R-FRAUD",
    "lane": null,
    "right": true,
    "limitWouldRefer": false
   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0054",
    "route": "paid",
    "rule": null,
    "lane": null,
    "right": true,
    "limitWouldRefer": false
   },
   {
    "claimId": "C-0055",
    "route": "paid",
    "rule": null,
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     "settledShare": 0.513,
     "wrong": 1,
     "accuracy": 0.9980506822612085,
     "accuracyRange": [
      0.9890416807331722,
      0.9996558234924934
     ],
     "settledPaid": 473,
     "settledAsked": 40,
     "wrongPaid": 1,
     "wrongAsked": 0,
     "settledPaidRange": [
      0.4422173178786741,
      0.5039893346449911
     ],
     "settledAskedRange": [
      0.029510809273909453,
      0.05400993742556984
     ],
     "wronglyPaidUsd": 2322,
     "wronglyPaidPer1000Usd": 2322,
     "netPer1000Usd": -1692.1199999999953,
     "netRange": [
      -12612.120000000023,
      8119.880000000131
     ],
     "loss": [
      {
       "band": "up to $5,000",
       "unpayablePer1000": 64,
       "paidShare": 0.015625,
       "meanPaidUsd": 2322,
       "wronglyPaidPer1000Usd": 2322
      },
      {
       "band": "$5,000 to $20,000",
       "unpayablePer1000": 120,
       "paidShare": 0,
       "meanPaidUsd": 0,
       "wronglyPaidPer1000Usd": 0
      },
      {
       "band": "$20,000 to $50,000",
       "unpayablePer1000": 75,
       "paidShare": 0,
       "meanPaidUsd": 0,
       "wronglyPaidPer1000Usd": 0
      }
     ]
    },
    "withoutLimit": {
     "claims": 1000,
     "settled": 571,
     "settledShare": 0.571,
     "wrong": 1,
     "accuracy": 0.9982486865148862,
     "accuracyRange": [
      0.9901471050156003,
      0.9996907911978954
     ],
     "settledPaid": 531,
     "settledAsked": 40,
     "wrongPaid": 1,
     "wrongAsked": 0,
     "settledPaidRange": [
      0.5000096789361564,
      0.5617530533514874
     ],
     "settledAskedRange": [
      0.029510809273909453,
      0.05400993742556984
     ],
     "wronglyPaidUsd": 2322,
     "wronglyPaidPer1000Usd": 2322,
     "netPer1000Usd": 2367.8800000000047,
     "netRange": [
      -8214.11999999999,
      12517.879999999714
     ],
     "loss": [
      {
       "band": "up to $5,000",
       "unpayablePer1000": 64,
       "paidShare": 0.015625,
       "meanPaidUsd": 2322,
       "wronglyPaidPer1000Usd": 2322
      },
      {
       "band": "$5,000 to $20,000",
       "unpayablePer1000": 120,
       "paidShare": 0,
       "meanPaidUsd": 0,
       "wronglyPaidPer1000Usd": 0
      },
      {
       "band": "$20,000 to $50,000",
       "unpayablePer1000": 75,
       "paidShare": 0,
       "meanPaidUsd": 0,
       "wronglyPaidPer1000Usd": 0
      }
     ]
    },
    "routes": {
     "paid": 473,
     "asked": 40,
     "quick_confirm": 29,
     "light_check": 79,
     "person_rule": 242,
     "person_doubt": 137,
     "total": 1000,
     "limitRefers": 58
    }
   },
   {
    "heldOutRunId": "fa1c09db-78ac-4527-a9e4-d50c8e2bbc85",
    "purpose": "config-check",
    "versionId": "78a03982-77dc-4e32-9c38-e020bd6157e0",
    "declared": true,
    "runLimitUsd": 20000,
    "withLimit": {
     "claims": 3000,
     "settled": 1613,
     "settledShare": 0.5376666666666666,
     "wrong": 1,
     "accuracy": 0.9993800371977681,
     "accuracyRange": [
      0.9964964743474449,
      0.999890555773502
     ],
     "settledPaid": 1486,
     "settledAsked": 127,
     "wrongPaid": 1,
     "wrongAsked": 0,
     "settledPaidRange": [
      0.477459253965214,
      0.513219349060991
     ],
     "settledAskedRange": [
      0.0356943365282267,
      0.05014294597029121
     ],
     "wronglyPaidUsd": 3293,
     "wronglyPaidPer1000Usd": 1097.6666666666665,
     "netPer1000Usd": 4058.880000000024,
     "netRange": [
      -1728.7866666666055,
      9518.879999999615
     ],
     "loss": [
      {
       "band": "up to $5,000",
       "unpayablePer1000": 66.66666666666666,
       "paidShare": 0.005,
       "meanPaidUsd": 3293,
       "wronglyPaidPer1000Usd": 1097.6666666666665
      },
      {
       "band": "$5,000 to $20,000",
       "unpayablePer1000": 111.66666666666666,
       "paidShare": 0,
       "meanPaidUsd": 0,
       "wronglyPaidPer1000Usd": 0
      },
      {
       "band": "$20,000 to $50,000",
       "unpayablePer1000": 71.33333333333333,
       "paidShare": 0,
       "meanPaidUsd": 0,
       "wronglyPaidPer1000Usd": 0
      }
     ]
    },
    "withoutLimit": {
     "claims": 3000,
     "settled": 1773,
     "settledShare": 0.591,
     "wrong": 1,
     "accuracy": 0.9994359842075579,
     "accuracyRange": [
      0.9968119357479344,
      0.9999004329854407
     ],
     "settledPaid": 1646,
     "settledAsked": 127,
     "wrongPaid": 1,
     "wrongAsked": 0,
     "settledPaidRange": [
      0.5308083939063103,
      0.5664004602489819
     ],
     "settledAskedRange": [
      0.0356943365282267,
      0.05014294597029121
     ],
     "wronglyPaidUsd": 3293,
     "wronglyPaidPer1000Usd": 1097.6666666666665,
     "netPer1000Usd": 7792.213333333339,
     "netRange": [
      2448.8800000001193,
      13299.880000000128
     ],
     "loss": [
      {
       "band": "up to $5,000",
       "unpayablePer1000": 66.66666666666666,
       "paidShare": 0.005,
       "meanPaidUsd": 3293,
       "wronglyPaidPer1000Usd": 1097.6666666666665
      },
      {
       "band": "$5,000 to $20,000",
       "unpayablePer1000": 111.66666666666666,
       "paidShare": 0,
       "meanPaidUsd": 0,
       "wronglyPaidPer1000Usd": 0
      },
      {
       "band": "$20,000 to $50,000",
       "unpayablePer1000": 71.33333333333333,
       "paidShare": 0,
       "meanPaidUsd": 0,
       "wronglyPaidPer1000Usd": 0
      }
     ]
    },
    "routes": {
     "paid": 1486,
     "asked": 127,
     "quick_confirm": 81,
     "light_check": 213,
     "person_rule": 722,
     "person_doubt": 371,
     "total": 3000,
     "limitRefers": 160
    }
   }
  ],
  "pooled": {
   "withLimit": {
    "claims": 10000,
    "settled": 5368,
    "settledShare": 0.5368,
    "wrong": 4,
    "accuracy": 0.9992548435171386,
    "accuracyRange": [
     0.9980854253870458,
     0.9997101909245
    ],
    "settledPaid": 4936,
    "settledAsked": 432,
    "wrongPaid": 3,
    "wrongAsked": 1,
    "settledPaidRange": [
     0.48380514190814056,
     0.5033997734515747
    ],
    "settledAskedRange": [
     0.039387503826347994,
     0.04736332997333951
    ],
    "wronglyPaidUsd": 6569,
    "wronglyPaidPer1000Usd": 656.9000000000001,
    "netPer1000Usd": 4886.980000000005,
    "netRange": [
     1861.179999999719,
     7950.980000001726
    ],
    "loss": [
     {
      "band": "up to $5,000",
      "unpayablePer1000": 69.10000000000001,
      "paidShare": 0.004341534008683068,
      "meanPaidUsd": 2189.6666666666665,
      "wronglyPaidPer1000Usd": 656.9000000000001
     },
     {
      "band": "$5,000 to $20,000",
      "unpayablePer1000": 113.5,
      "paidShare": 0,
      "meanPaidUsd": 0,
      "wronglyPaidPer1000Usd": 0
     },
     {
      "band": "$20,000 to $50,000",
      "unpayablePer1000": 73.10000000000001,
      "paidShare": 0,
      "meanPaidUsd": 0,
      "wronglyPaidPer1000Usd": 0
     }
    ]
   },
   "withoutLimit": {
    "claims": 10000,
    "settled": 5875,
    "settledShare": 0.5875,
    "wrong": 5,
    "accuracy": 0.9991489361702127,
    "accuracyRange": [
     0.9980090938434603,
     0.9996364287030224
    ],
    "settledPaid": 5443,
    "settledAsked": 432,
    "wrongPaid": 4,
    "wrongAsked": 1,
    "settledPaidRange": [
     0.5345233884504259,
     0.554042588044044
    ],
    "settledAskedRange": [
     0.039387503826347994,
     0.04736332997333951
    ],
    "wronglyPaidUsd": 56568,
    "wronglyPaidPer1000Usd": 5656.8,
    "netPer1000Usd": 3492.0800000000045,
    "netRange": [
     -8139.019999998643,
     10727.580000001439
    ],
    "loss": [
     {
      "band": "up to $5,000",
      "unpayablePer1000": 69.10000000000001,
      "paidShare": 0.004341534008683068,
      "meanPaidUsd": 2189.6666666666665,
      "wronglyPaidPer1000Usd": 656.9000000000001
     },
     {
      "band": "$5,000 to $20,000",
      "unpayablePer1000": 113.5,
      "paidShare": 0,
      "meanPaidUsd": 0,
      "wronglyPaidPer1000Usd": 0
     },
     {
      "band": "$20,000 to $50,000",
      "unpayablePer1000": 73.10000000000001,
      "paidShare": 0.0013679890560875513,
      "meanPaidUsd": 49999,
      "wronglyPaidPer1000Usd": 4999.900000000001
     }
    ]
   },
   "routes": {
    "paid": 4936,
    "asked": 432,
    "quick_confirm": 296,
    "light_check": 735,
    "person_rule": 2363,
    "person_doubt": 1238,
    "total": 10000,
    "limitRefers": 507
   }
  },
  "routesNote": "The recommended design on the fresh claims: the frozen W3 with the payment limit decides which claims are paid, asked for more or sent to a person, exactly as the fresh figures are scored. The quick-confirmation floor and the fraud grade were fitted once on the 1,000 evaluation claims and applied unchanged to the fresh claims, which they were never fitted on. Both were fitted with the payment limit, as the design runs.",
  "routesFit": {
   "quickConfirmFloor": 0,
   "fraudGrade": 0.9,
   "cutoff": 0.813155819901474,
   "frozenCutoff": 0.813155819901474
  },
  "mistakes": {
   "withLimit": [
    {
     "sample": "gate 1f7861a9",
     "claimId": "C-0184",
     "line": "auto",
     "category": "a manipulation attempt",
     "amount": "under $20,000",
     "action": "asked",
     "certainty": 0.8337944950765417,
     "cutoff": 0.813155819901474,
     "accepted": [
      "investigate"
     ],
     "steps": [
      {
       "step": "answers",
       "text": "Jev answered the fourteen questions on the claim; its answers are listed with this case, as the run recorded them, and W3 read them."
      },
      {
       "step": "rules",
       "text": "No hard rule stopped it: it was not over $50,000, and nothing sent it to investigation or quarantine."
      },
      {
       "step": "proposal",
       "text": "W3 proposed to ask the customer for more information, with a certainty of 83.4%."
      },
      {
       "step": "line",
       "text": "That is at or above its frozen line of 81.3%, so it was settled with no person."
      },
      {
       "step": "limit",
       "text": "The payment limit applies only to payments."
      },
      {
       "step": "key",
       "text": "The answer key accepts an investigation, not asking for more information, so this is a wrong decision."
      }
     ],
     "answers": [
      {
       "label": "Line of insurance",
       "answer": "auto (100% sure)"
      },
      {
       "label": "Complete enough to process",
       "answer": "59% likely"
      },
      {
       "label": "Urgency",
       "answer": "2.5 of 3"
      },
      {
       "label": "Text tries to steer an automated system",
       "answer": "10% likely"
      },
      {
       "label": "Documentation quality",
       "answer": "1.6 of 4"
      },
      {
       "label": "Photos match the incident",
       "answer": "91% likely"
      },
      {
       "label": "Estimate plausible for the damage",
       "answer": "5% likely"
      },
      {
       "label": "Damage severity",
       "answer": "2.2 of 4"
      },
      {
       "label": "Fraud risk",
       "answer": "1.9 of 4"
      },
      {
       "label": "Similar recent claim by this claimant",
       "answer": "6% likely"
      },
      {
       "label": "Story contradicts itself",
       "answer": "41% likely"
      },
      {
       "label": "Recommended outcome",
       "answer": "investigate (56% sure)"
      },
      {
       "label": "Needs a specialist",
       "answer": "81% likely"
      },
      {
       "label": "Decision difficulty",
       "answer": "1.4 of 3"
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "sample": "confirmation f559ede7",
     "claimId": "C-0938",
     "line": "auto",
     "category": "an ambiguous claim",
     "amount": "under $20,000",
     "action": "paid",
     "certainty": 0.8171995725791156,
     "cutoff": 0.813155819901474,
     "accepted": [
      "human_review",
      "investigate",
      "request_more_info"
     ],
     "steps": [
      {
       "step": "answers",
       "text": "Jev answered the fourteen questions on the claim; its answers are listed with this case, as the run recorded them, and W3 read them."
      },
      {
       "step": "rules",
       "text": "No hard rule stopped it: it was not over $50,000, and nothing sent it to investigation or quarantine."
      },
      {
       "step": "proposal",
       "text": "W3 proposed to pay it, with a certainty of 81.7%."
      },
      {
       "step": "line",
       "text": "That is at or above its frozen line of 81.3%, so it was settled with no person."
      },
      {
       "step": "limit",
       "text": "The $20,000 payment limit did not stop it."
      },
      {
       "step": "key",
       "text": "The answer key accepts a person's review or an investigation or asking for more information, not paying it, so this is a wrong decision."
      }
     ],
     "answers": [
      {
       "label": "Line of insurance",
       "answer": "auto (100% sure)"
      },
      {
       "label": "Complete enough to process",
       "answer": "81% likely"
      },
      {
       "label": "Urgency",
       "answer": "0.0 of 3"
      },
      {
       "label": "Text tries to steer an automated system",
       "answer": "5% likely"
      },
      {
       "label": "Documentation quality",
       "answer": "2.7 of 4"
      },
      {
       "label": "Photos match the incident",
       "answer": "92% likely"
      },
      {
       "label": "Estimate plausible for the damage",
       "answer": "85% likely"
      },
      {
       "label": "Damage severity",
       "answer": "1.0 of 4"
      },
      {
       "label": "Fraud risk",
       "answer": "1.4 of 4"
      },
      {
       "label": "Similar recent claim by this claimant",
       "answer": "31% likely"
      },
      {
       "label": "Story contradicts itself",
       "answer": "34% likely"
      },
      {
       "label": "Recommended outcome",
       "answer": "approve (25% sure)"
      },
      {
       "label": "Needs a specialist",
       "answer": "40% likely"
      },
      {
       "label": "Decision difficulty",
       "answer": "1.2 of 3"
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "sample": "gate 59468f88",
     "claimId": "C-0951",
     "line": "home",
     "category": "an ambiguous claim",
     "amount": "under $20,000",
     "action": "paid",
     "certainty": 0.8337469054592129,
     "cutoff": 0.813155819901474,
     "accepted": [
      "human_review",
      "investigate",
      "request_more_info"
     ],
     "steps": [
      {
       "step": "answers",
       "text": "Jev answered the fourteen questions on the claim; its answers are listed with this case, as the run recorded them, and W3 read them."
      },
      {
       "step": "rules",
       "text": "No hard rule stopped it: it was not over $50,000, and nothing sent it to investigation or quarantine."
      },
      {
       "step": "proposal",
       "text": "W3 proposed to pay it, with a certainty of 83.4%."
      },
      {
       "step": "line",
       "text": "That is at or above its frozen line of 81.3%, so it was settled with no person."
      },
      {
       "step": "limit",
       "text": "The $20,000 payment limit did not stop it."
      },
      {
       "step": "key",
       "text": "The answer key accepts a person's review or an investigation or asking for more information, not paying it, so this is a wrong decision."
      }
     ],
     "answers": [
      {
       "label": "Line of insurance",
       "answer": "home (100% sure)"
      },
      {
       "label": "Complete enough to process",
       "answer": "81% likely"
      },
      {
       "label": "Urgency",
       "answer": "0.8 of 3"
      },
      {
       "label": "Text tries to steer an automated system",
       "answer": "7% likely"
      },
      {
       "label": "Documentation quality",
       "answer": "3.0 of 4"
      },
      {
       "label": "Photos match the incident",
       "answer": "92% likely"
      },
      {
       "label": "Estimate plausible for the damage",
       "answer": "81% likely"
      },
      {
       "label": "Damage severity",
       "answer": "2.1 of 4"
      },
      {
       "label": "Fraud risk",
       "answer": "1.3 of 4"
      },
      {
       "label": "Similar recent claim by this claimant",
       "answer": "5% likely"
      },
      {
       "label": "Story contradicts itself",
       "answer": "40% likely"
      },
      {
       "label": "Recommended outcome",
       "answer": "approve (36% sure)"
      },
      {
       "label": "Needs a specialist",
       "answer": "42% likely"
      },
      {
       "label": "Decision difficulty",
       "answer": "1.4 of 3"
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "sample": "config-check fa1c09db",
     "claimId": "C3-0942",
     "line": "home",
     "category": "an ambiguous claim",
     "amount": "under $20,000",
     "action": "paid",
     "certainty": 0.8221116319191801,
     "cutoff": 0.813155819901474,
     "accepted": [
      "human_review",
      "investigate",
      "request_more_info"
     ],
     "steps": [
      {
       "step": "answers",
       "text": "Jev answered the fourteen questions on the claim; its answers are listed with this case, as the run recorded them, and W3 read them."
      },
      {
       "step": "rules",
       "text": "No hard rule stopped it: it was not over $50,000, and nothing sent it to investigation or quarantine."
      },
      {
       "step": "proposal",
       "text": "W3 proposed to pay it, with a certainty of 82.2%."
      },
      {
       "step": "line",
       "text": "That is at or above its frozen line of 81.3%, so it was settled with no person."
      },
      {
       "step": "limit",
       "text": "The $20,000 payment limit did not stop it."
      },
      {
       "step": "key",
       "text": "The answer key accepts a person's review or an investigation or asking for more information, not paying it, so this is a wrong decision."
      }
     ],
     "answers": [
      {
       "label": "Line of insurance",
       "answer": "home (100% sure)"
      },
      {
       "label": "Complete enough to process",
       "answer": "80% likely"
      },
      {
       "label": "Urgency",
       "answer": "0.8 of 3"
      },
      {
       "label": "Text tries to steer an automated system",
       "answer": "6% likely"
      },
      {
       "label": "Documentation quality",
       "answer": "3.0 of 4"
      },
      {
       "label": "Photos match the incident",
       "answer": "91% likely"
      },
      {
       "label": "Estimate plausible for the damage",
       "answer": "82% likely"
      },
      {
       "label": "Damage severity",
       "answer": "2.2 of 4"
      },
      {
       "label": "Fraud risk",
       "answer": "1.4 of 4"
      },
      {
       "label": "Similar recent claim by this claimant",
       "answer": "21% likely"
      },
      {
       "label": "Story contradicts itself",
       "answer": "48% likely"
      },
      {
       "label": "Recommended outcome",
       "answer": "approve (24% sure)"
      },
      {
       "label": "Needs a specialist",
       "answer": "47% likely"
      },
      {
       "label": "Decision difficulty",
       "answer": "1.5 of 3"
      }
     ]
    }
   ],
   "withoutLimitOnly": [
    {
     "sample": "gate 99e4ee1a",
     "claimId": "C-0605",
     "line": "home",
     "category": "a manipulation attempt",
     "amount": "$49,999",
     "action": "paid",
     "certainty": 0.8683355874944338,
     "cutoff": 0.813155819901474,
     "accepted": [
      "investigate"
     ],
     "steps": [
      {
       "step": "answers",
       "text": "Jev answered the fourteen questions on the claim; its answers are listed with this case, as the run recorded them, and W3 read them."
      },
      {
       "step": "rules",
       "text": "No hard rule stopped it: it was not over $50,000, and nothing sent it to investigation or quarantine."
      },
      {
       "step": "proposal",
       "text": "W3 proposed to pay it, with a certainty of 86.8%."
      },
      {
       "step": "line",
       "text": "That is at or above its frozen line of 81.3%, so it was settled with no person."
      },
      {
       "step": "limit",
       "text": "Without the payment limit it was paid. With the $20,000 payment limit, an automatic payment this size goes to a person instead, so the headline does not count it."
      },
      {
       "step": "key",
       "text": "The answer key accepts an investigation, not paying it, so this is a wrong decision."
      }
     ],
     "answers": [
      {
       "label": "Line of insurance",
       "answer": "home (100% sure)"
      },
      {
       "label": "Complete enough to process",
       "answer": "88% likely"
      },
      {
       "label": "Urgency",
       "answer": "2.0 of 3"
      },
      {
       "label": "Text tries to steer an automated system",
       "answer": "3% likely"
      },
      {
       "label": "Documentation quality",
       "answer": "3.2 of 4"
      },
      {
       "label": "Photos match the incident",
       "answer": "96% likely"
      },
      {
       "label": "Estimate plausible for the damage",
       "answer": "80% likely"
      },
      {
       "label": "Damage severity",
       "answer": "2.9 of 4"
      },
      {
       "label": "Fraud risk",
       "answer": "0.1 of 4"
      },
      {
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      "accuracy": 1,
      "range": [
       0.9684705387979146,
       1
      ]
     },
     {
      "cutoff": 0.9938113364723248,
      "settled": 114,
      "settledShare": 0.114,
      "wrong": 0,
      "accuracy": 1,
      "range": [
       0.9674003068525885,
       1
      ]
     },
     {
      "cutoff": 0.9939676230117387,
      "settled": 110,
      "settledShare": 0.11,
      "wrong": 0,
      "accuracy": 1,
      "range": [
       0.9662548664108728,
       1
      ]
     },
     {
      "cutoff": 0.9941865449740487,
      "settled": 106,
      "settledShare": 0.106,
      "wrong": 0,
      "accuracy": 1,
      "range": [
       0.9650260010779157,
       0.9999999999999998
      ]
     },
     {
      "cutoff": 0.994268932327606,
      "settled": 102,
      "settledShare": 0.102,
      "wrong": 0,
      "accuracy": 1,
      "range": [
       0.9637042523922542,
       1
      ]
     },
     {
      "cutoff": 0.9943877425333573,
      "settled": 98,
      "settledShare": 0.098,
      "wrong": 0,
      "accuracy": 1,
      "range": [
       0.9622786759045421,
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      ]
     },
     {
      "cutoff": 0.9945467687838385,
      "settled": 94,
      "settledShare": 0.094,
      "wrong": 0,
      "accuracy": 1,
      "range": [
       0.9607365374237543,
       1
      ]
     },
     {
      "cutoff": 0.9946693588158562,
      "settled": 90,
      "settledShare": 0.09,
      "wrong": 0,
      "accuracy": 1,
      "range": [
       0.959062931578319,
       0.9999999999999998
      ]
     },
     {
      "cutoff": 0.9947791450224827,
      "settled": 86,
      "settledShare": 0.086,
      "wrong": 0,
      "accuracy": 1,
      "range": [
       0.9572402984808818,
       1
      ]
     },
     {
      "cutoff": 0.9948109810162103,
      "settled": 82,
      "settledShare": 0.082,
      "wrong": 0,
      "accuracy": 1,
      "range": [
       0.9552478052599206,
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      ]
     },
     {
      "cutoff": 0.9948985950790831,
      "settled": 78,
      "settledShare": 0.078,
      "wrong": 0,
      "accuracy": 1,
      "range": [
       0.9530605462258802,
       1
      ]
     },
     {
      "cutoff": 0.9949610171889619,
      "settled": 74,
      "settledShare": 0.074,
      "wrong": 0,
      "accuracy": 1,
      "range": [
       0.9506484964337834,
       0.9999999999999998
      ]
     },
     {
      "cutoff": 0.9950383735222346,
      "settled": 70,
      "settledShare": 0.07,
      "wrong": 0,
      "accuracy": 1,
      "range": [
       0.9479751251327164,
       0.9999999999999998
      ]
     },
     {
      "cutoff": 0.9951132623000247,
      "settled": 66,
      "settledShare": 0.066,
      "wrong": 0,
      "accuracy": 1,
      "range": [
       0.9449955327483907,
       1
      ]
     },
     {
      "cutoff": 0.9952080827455931,
      "settled": 62,
      "settledShare": 0.062,
      "wrong": 0,
      "accuracy": 1,
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       0.9416539087749994,
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     },
     {
      "cutoff": 0.9952676605822642,
      "settled": 58,
      "settledShare": 0.058,
      "wrong": 0,
      "accuracy": 1,
      "range": [
       0.9378800031047062,
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     },
     {
      "cutoff": 0.9953579328919483,
      "settled": 54,
      "settledShare": 0.054,
      "wrong": 0,
      "accuracy": 1,
      "range": [
       0.9335841332189981,
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     },
     {
      "cutoff": 0.9954461685608222,
      "settled": 50,
      "settledShare": 0.05,
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      "accuracy": 1,
      "range": [
       0.9286499658256813,
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      ]
     },
     {
      "cutoff": 0.9954961410119801,
      "settled": 46,
      "settledShare": 0.046,
      "wrong": 0,
      "accuracy": 1,
      "range": [
       0.9229238226702192,
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     },
     {
      "cutoff": 0.9955863511017031,
      "settled": 42,
      "settledShare": 0.042,
      "wrong": 0,
      "accuracy": 1,
      "range": [
       0.916198387490838,
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      ]
     },
     {
      "cutoff": 0.9957096254617072,
      "settled": 38,
      "settledShare": 0.038,
      "wrong": 0,
      "accuracy": 1,
      "range": [
       0.90818706741616,
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     },
     {
      "cutoff": 0.9958255682208365,
      "settled": 34,
      "settledShare": 0.034,
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      "accuracy": 1,
      "range": [
       0.8984820937803899,
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     },
     {
      "cutoff": 0.9959594859448122,
      "settled": 30,
      "settledShare": 0.03,
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      "accuracy": 1,
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       0.886482908609522,
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     },
     {
      "cutoff": 0.996092790092978,
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      "settledShare": 0.026,
      "wrong": 0,
      "accuracy": 1,
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       0.8712669561953783,
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     },
     {
      "cutoff": 0.9962652590137553,
      "settled": 22,
      "settledShare": 0.022,
      "wrong": 0,
      "accuracy": 1,
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       0.8513404742740388,
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     },
     {
      "cutoff": 0.9963133216195121,
      "settled": 18,
      "settledShare": 0.018,
      "wrong": 0,
      "accuracy": 1,
      "range": [
       0.8241154494176252,
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     },
     {
      "cutoff": 0.9964277322433018,
      "settled": 14,
      "settledShare": 0.014,
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      "accuracy": 1,
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       0.7846829880728186,
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     },
     {
      "cutoff": 0.9967218602454718,
      "settled": 10,
      "settledShare": 0.01,
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      "accuracy": 1,
      "range": [
       0.7224598312333834,
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     },
     {
      "cutoff": 0.9972135474608684,
      "settled": 6,
      "settledShare": 0.006,
      "wrong": 0,
      "accuracy": 1,
      "range": [
       0.6096569663469354,
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     },
     {
      "cutoff": 0.9975271040240024,
      "settled": 2,
      "settledShare": 0.002,
      "wrong": 0,
      "accuracy": 1,
      "range": [
       0.3423719528896193,
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      ]
     },
     {
      "cutoff": 0.9975963750077911,
      "settled": 1,
      "settledShare": 0.001,
      "wrong": 0,
      "accuracy": 1,
      "range": [
       0.20654329147389294,
       1
      ]
     }
    ],
    "marks": [
     {
      "target": 0.99,
      "byPoint": {
       "cutoff": 0.6154532856550035,
       "settled": 587,
       "settledShare": 0.587,
       "wrong": 5,
       "accuracy": 0.9914821124361158,
       "range": [
        0.9802166877114438,
        0.9963563904198184
       ]
      },
      "byLowerBound": {
       "cutoff": 0.7804526589230428,
       "settled": 535,
       "settledShare": 0.535,
       "wrong": 0,
       "accuracy": 1,
       "range": [
        0.9928706321115517,
        0.9999999999999998
       ]
      }
     },
     {
      "target": 0.995,
      "byPoint": {
       "cutoff": 0.6490937737234754,
       "settled": 578,
       "settledShare": 0.578,
       "wrong": 2,
       "accuracy": 0.9965397923875432,
       "range": [
        0.9874721997517178,
        0.9990505927058856
       ]
      },
      "byLowerBound": null
     },
     {
      "target": 0.999,
      "byPoint": {
       "cutoff": 0.7804526589230428,
       "settled": 535,
       "settledShare": 0.535,
       "wrong": 0,
       "accuracy": 1,
       "range": [
        0.9928706321115517,
        0.9999999999999998
       ]
      },
      "byLowerBound": null
     }
    ],
    "atCutoff": null
   },
   "note": [
    "Descriptive only. This curve is drawn on held-out claims after the fact; a cut-off chosen from it would be fitted to them, so no cut-off is chosen here, and the version keeps the one it was frozen with. The payment limit was itself set after one of these sets (see the retrospective note), so this curve inherits that.",
    "Only W3's line moves: every hard rule, and the payment limit, stays exactly as frozen at every point.",
    "The development curve is development evidence: the same design cross-validated on the evaluation claims, the claims the designs were built on. Where the two curves part is how far development flattered the design."
   ]
  },
  "baseline": {
   "evaluationRunId": "6827826e-b962-4bd8-bdb3-b163712fd660",
   "claims": 1000,
   "rules": {
    "settledShare": 0.047,
    "accuracy": 1,
    "wronglyPaidUsd": 0,
    "netPer1000Usd": 3289.8800000000047,
    "model": "rules-baseline-1 (no model)"
   },
   "decisionModel": {
    "settledShare": 0.626,
    "accuracy": 0.9968051118210862,
    "wronglyPaidUsd": 4211,
    "netPer1000Usd": 8808.880000000005,
    "model": "~typesafe/jev-latest"
   }
  }
 },
 "datasheet": {
  "generator": {
   "version": "v1",
   "claimsPerCorpus": 1000,
   "note": "Quotas are exact per 1,000 claims: by line, by category (clean, ambiguous, fraud, manipulation) and the share over $50,000. The seed changes which claims are generated, their amounts, documents and wording, never the quotas."
  },
  "seedPolicy": [
   "The evaluation corpus is generated from one fixed, public seed; every design is developed and cross-validated on it, so its figures are development evidence.",
   "A held-out test's seed does not exist until its run starts, from a slot declared in advance for one frozen version. The tests run before 28 September drew it from the operating system's random source at that moment; from the declaration log v2 on, it is computed from a public drand round the declaration named a day ahead.",
   "A confirmation adds a second 1,000 claims from a seed derived from the first. Held-out corpora carry no hand-written fixtures and no rewordings, and no held-out seed is reused in any pool.",
   "A test declared in advance for the version as it runs now, payment limit included, runs once on 3,000 claims: from its slot's seed and two seeds derived from it, each checked against every earlier seed and registered to that slot."
  ],
  "rightDecision": {
   "pay": "Paying without a person is right when the claim's answer key accepts payment.",
   "ask": "Asking the customer for more is right when the answer key accepts a request for more information, as it does for a claim missing documents.",
   "person": "Sending the claim to a person is right when the answer key calls for review, investigation or quarantine. An ambiguous claim's key always accepts a person.",
   "wrong": "A settled claim is wrong when its disposition is not one its answer key accepts. Claims sent to a person are not settled and are not counted as wrong.",
   "answerKey": "Every synthetic claim carries an answer key written by the generator from the facts it planted: the dispositions it accepts. A decision is judged against that key, never against a person's or a model's opinion."
  },
  "routingRule": "A claim over $50,000, a claim the answer key marks as fraud to investigate, and a manipulation attempt to quarantine must always reach a person. Their share caps what any workflow can settle with no person.",
  "evaluation": {
   "claims": 1000,
   "byLine": {
    "auto": 0.4,
    "home": 0.3,
    "commercial": 0.2,
    "life": 0.1
   },
   "byAmount": [
    {
     "band": "under $20,000",
     "share": 0.755
    },
    {
     "band": "$20,000 to $50,000",
     "share": 0.165
    },
    {
     "band": "over $50,000",
     "share": 0.08
    }
   ],
   "planted": {
    "fraud": 0.1,
    "manipulation": 0.05,
    "ambiguous": 0.15,
    "missingDocuments": 0.051
   },
   "mustReachPerson": 0.216,
   "noPersonCeiling": 0.784
  },
  "heldOut": {
   "claims": 10000,
   "corpora": 10,
   "byLine": {
    "auto": 0.4,
    "home": 0.3,
    "commercial": 0.2,
    "life": 0.1
   },
   "byAmount": [
    {
     "band": "under $20,000",
     "share": 0.7544
    },
    {
     "band": "$20,000 to $50,000",
     "share": 0.1656
    },
    {
     "band": "over $50,000",
     "share": 0.08
    }
   ],
   "planted": {
    "fraud": 0.1,
    "manipulation": 0.05,
    "ambiguous": 0.15,
    "missingDocuments": 0.0453
   },
   "mustReachPerson": 0.2119,
   "noPersonCeiling": 0.7881
  },
  "differs": [
   "byAmount.under $20,000",
   "byAmount.$20,000 to $50,000",
   "planted.missingDocuments",
   "mustReachPerson",
   "noPersonCeiling"
  ]
 },
 "overview": {
  "firstDesign": {
   "chapter": 1,
   "handledRate": 0.034,
   "handled": 34,
   "wrong": 10
  },
  "byHand": {
   "staffMinutesPerClaim": 122.04,
   "costPer1000Usd": 142380
  },
  "candidate": {
   "chapter": 4,
   "workflowId": "W3"
  },
  "layers": [
   {
    "chapter": 5,
    "basisChapter": 4,
    "status": "replayed",
    "staffMinutesPerClaim": 102.204,
    "netPer1000Usd": 18930.880000000005,
    "handledRate": 0.626,
    "accuracy": 0.9968051118210862,
    "evidence": "Replayed; assumes a 3-minute quick confirm"
   },
   {
    "chapter": 6,
    "basisChapter": 5,
    "status": "replayed",
    "staffMinutesPerClaim": 74.064,
    "netPer1000Usd": 51760.880000000005,
    "handledRate": 0.626,
    "accuracy": 0.9968051118210862,
    "evidence": "Replayed; assumes a 20-minute light check"
   },
   {
    "chapter": 7,
    "basisChapter": 6,
    "status": "tested",
    "staffMinutesPerClaim": 73.992,
    "netPer1000Usd": 51844.790379,
    "handledRate": 0.63,
    "accuracy": 0.9952380952380953,
    "evidence": "Tested with real calls to anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5 on 110 near-miss claims"
   },
   {
    "chapter": 9,
    "basisChapter": 6,
    "status": "replayed",
    "staffMinutesPerClaim": 74.794,
    "netPer1000Usd": 50909.21333333334,
    "handledRate": 0.626,
    "accuracy": 0.9968051118210862,
    "evidence": "Replayed; assumes 10-minute audits"
   }
  ],
  "safeguard": {
   "claimId": "C-0006",
   "valueUsd": 75000,
   "rule": "R-HV-50K",
   "modelRecommendation": "investigate",
   "routing": {
    "W0": "person",
    "W1": "person",
    "W2": "person",
    "W3": "person"
   },
   "laneFromCh5": "quick_confirm"
  },
  "unproven": [
   "A frozen W3 has held-out evidence; every other figure here is development evidence on synthetic claims.",
   "Staff minutes per task and the $70 cost of a productive hour are benchmark mid-points, and the short lanes' and audits' minutes are the lab's assumptions: none are measurements.",
   "A person is assumed to decide every claim they see correctly; people's own errors are not measured.",
   "An automated request for information is a next action only: the customer's reply and the claim's final outcome are not recorded.",
   "The second opinion rests on real calls for 110 near-miss claims only.",
   "Modeled net is staff capacity at assumed costs, not realized cash savings; this is a demonstration, not a customer deployment."
  ]
 },
 "pricing": {
  "hourlyRateUsd": 70,
  "aiCostPerClaimUsd": 0.00012,
  "minutes": {
   "human_review": 60,
   "specialist": 360,
   "investigate": 540,
   "quarantine": 60
  },
  "quickConfirmMinutes": 3,
  "lightVerifyMinutes": 20,
  "auditMinutes": 10,
  "unit": "productive hour",
  "basis": [
   {
    "item": "Standard review",
    "value": "60 minutes",
    "benchmark": "30 to 90 minutes; simple home claims take 1 to 3 hours",
    "source": "Industry practice; no published touch-time measurement (weak)",
    "url": null,
    "breakEven": {
     "value": 43.32915924489498,
     "direction": "at least",
     "heldOutRunId": "f559ede7-133b-4688-b202-ea1e13177b9f",
     "claims": 2000
    }
   },
   {
    "item": "Specialist review",
    "value": "6 hours",
    "benchmark": "4 to 10 hours or more for complex files",
    "source": "Industry practice (weak)",
    "url": null
   },
   {
    "item": "Fraud investigation",
    "value": "9 hours",
    "benchmark": "174 accepted cases per investigator per year: about 9 to 10 hours each",
    "source": "Coalition Against Insurance Fraud, SIU Benchmarking Study 2024",
    "url": "https://insurancefraud.org/wp-content/uploads/2024-Insurer-SIU-Benchmarking-Study.pdf"
   },
   {
    "item": "Quarantine (security review)",
    "value": "1 hour",
    "benchmark": "No benchmark: set equal to a standard review",
    "source": "Lab assumption",
    "url": null
   },
   {
    "item": "Staff cost",
    "value": "$70 per productive hour",
    "benchmark": "Median wage $37.51 an hour plus benefits (30% of pay): about $54 per paid hour, about $70 per productive hour",
    "source": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, occupation 13-1031 (2025) and Employer Costs for Employee Compensation",
    "url": "https://www.bls.gov/ooh/business-and-financial/claims-adjusters-appraisers-examiners-and-investigators.htm"
   },
   {
    "item": "Quick confirm, light check, audit",
    "value": "3, 20 and 10 minutes",
    "benchmark": "No benchmark",
    "source": "Lab assumptions",
    "url": null
   },
   {
    "item": "Wait for a decision by hand",
    "value": "5 days",
    "benchmark": "Decision within 21 days of proof of loss (regulation); final payment on home claims about 41 days. Five days is likely optimistic for people, and no source measures the time to a decision on routine claims",
    "source": "NAIC Model Regulation 902; J.D. Power 2026 Property Claims Study (the five days: lab assumption, weak)",
    "url": "https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/model-law-902.pdf"
   }
  ]
 }
}